Japan: Through A Shoji Screen, Darkly: Part XXXVII

As I write this, Japan is once again in a funk. The yen has come ever so close to its post-WW2 high of JPY79.70/US$ seen in 1995, the Nikkei has touched 16-month lows, and now, the governing Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) has become embroiled in an internal power struggle between Prime Minister Naoto Kan and long-time ‘shadow shogun’ Ichiro Ozawa. Ozawa, 68, is making what must surely be his last bid to become prime minister. Even if he fails, he could end up crippling Kan, and even tear the party apart, potentially leading to a fresh election, many more years of unstable governments, and policy confusion. All this at a time when Japan, more than most countries, needs strong and stable leadership to solve its economic woes.

I have almost run out of things to say about Japan’s political weaknesses and economic funk, so I will leave you with a selection of what I hope are some of the more informative articles on the country published on this blog.

Why Naoto Kan’t Save Japan (4 June 2010)

Japan’s Debt: Some Unpleasant Questions (10 December 2009)

On The Ground In Greater Tokyo (30 November 2009)

Japan’s Debt: Argentina Times One Hundred! (22 September 2009)

Japan: An Existential Election Victory (1 September 2009)

In Defence Of Economic Stagnation (25 June 2009)

Now Or Never For Japan’s Opposition (15 May 2009)

Japan: Through A Shoji Screen, Darkly (17 February 2009)

Japan: The Strong Yen And The Tourism Impact (26 January 2009)

Japan: The Lost Eternity (30 October 2008)

Japan: The Doors Revolve, But Where Is Superman? (8 September 2008)

The Bad News Bears Go To Japan (15 August 2008)

Japan Aims To Boost Imports… Of People (3 July 2008)

US Global Power And Obama ‘After’ Iraq

US President Barack Obama’s formal declaration of the end of US combat operations in Iraq on August 31 is a good a moment as any to reflect on the war, the United States’ global position, and Obama himself.

Iraq War: Have The Goals Been Achieved?

First, let me address the Iraq War itself. There were several publicly [Read more...]

Deal-Making Activity Remains Strong In Oil Services Sector

Notwithstanding the appreciation of crude oil prices during 2010, the frenzy of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in the oilfield services sector continues. The bearish price environment of 2009 supported M&A activity on the back of attractive valuations and a desire to whittle down competition. During H1 2010, we saw a significant rise in such M&A [Read more...]

Brazil: Foreign Retail Sector Diversifying Away From Grocery

The Brazilian consumer sector is one of the most dynamic in the world, with growing incomes and a strong consumer culture driving up spending and delivering impressive revenue growth for the country’s retailers. The market is also relatively immature, with tremendous potential for expansion in underdeveloped parts of the country. Given this it is no [Read more...]

German Growth: Don’t Believe In Miracles

Looking at recent economic data and leading indicators, such as the Ifo Business Climate Index, I get the impression that the economic recovery of Europe’s largest economy knows no bounds. Indeed, after posting its fastest economic growth rate since re-unification (at 2.2%), my colleagues at Business Monitor International have upgraded their real GDP growth forecast [Read more...]

Global Treasury Markets: How Low Can Yields Go?

On this week’s Business Monitor Podcast we assess the outlook for global treasury markets. 2010 has thus far been a gangbusters year for treasuries and the implications for interest rate and inflation expectations has heavily reinforced our core macroeconomic outlook for a major downturn in global demand growth. Key questions addressed in the podcast include: [Read more...]

 
icon for podpress  Global Treasury Markets: How Low Can Yields Go? [19:14m]
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A World Of City-States?

For some years now, social scientists and some economic historians have spoken about how cities are displacing nation-states as the most important actors on the world stage. The latest edition of Foreign Policy magazine carries an article along these lines, with the tag ‘The age of nations is over. The new urban age has begun’. [Read more...]


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