After a volatile year and a seemingly robust start to 2012, Mark Schaltuper, Head of Europe Country Risk & Financial Markets, asked Business Monitor’s Commodities team what the outlook for commodities is for the remainder of the year. John Davies, Ed Coughlan and Ophelie Buchet share their views on the upside potential for the commodity complex, as well as the significant downside risks which remain.
Lunar Competition Gathering Momentum
US Republican presidential candidate Newt Gingrich on Wednesday, January 25, called for the United States to expand its space programme. In particular, he stated that the US would have a permanent base on the moon by the end of his putative second term, ie January 2021. This echoed former president George W. Bush’s goal of… [Read more]
Iraq Set For New Conflict In 2012?
As the first anniversary of the start of the Arab Spring passes by, attention is naturally focused on the political transitions in Egypt, Libya, and Yemen, and the quasi-civil war in Syria. Iraq hasn’t attracted too much attention of late, and even the United States’ withdrawal of its troops in December 2011 was a low-key… [Read more]
Africa Oil Output To Bounce Back In 2012
Regional Oil and Gas production has bounced back strongly over the last quarter in line with the rapid return of Libyan volumes. We expect full pre-war Libyan output to resume by the second half of 2012. Production is likely to continue growing as high oil prices drive further exploration and production across Africa. The key… [Read more]
China: An End To 8%+ Growth; North Korea: The Brothers Kim
Business Monitor Online has recently published two new analyses on North East Asia. China: With the economy heading towards a ‘hard landing’, we believe it will become increasingly difficult for the central government to report strong growth figures. While the headline GDP figure is as much a political issue as an economic one, a greater… [Read more]
Emerging Market Currency Rally Has Room To Run
Although a deal on private sector writedowns of Greek debt has yet to be reached, the risk rally that began in October 2011 remains in place. Measures taken by the European Central Bank, such as cutting interest rates and providing unlimited banking sector liquidity, have certainly helped stabilise financial markets in the eurozone and beyond… [Read more]
Euro And Equities Recouple
The story of the past week has been the resurgence of the euro and the nascent return of risk appetite. The euro is poised to rally to resistance at US$1.3250/EUR, although we would be cautious at that stage. Interestingly, the euro has rallied as anticipation has grown surrounding ECB (European Central Bank) and multilateral assistance… [Read more]