It’s been another BRL-illiant month for the Brazilian real. At BRL1.5620/US$ on July 31, the currency has powered to its strongest level since the dark days of 1998-99, defying many disbelievers along the way. The real has been the king of EM currencies ever since Lula shrugged off concerns that he would be a Chávez… [Read more]
Barack Obama is the man of the moment, and he is already acting as if president, having concluded a whirlwind tour of Europe and the Middle East. Certainly, his popularity abroad reflects hopes of a more benign US foreign policy, after the Bush years. However, I suspect that should Obama be elected president (which is… [Read more]
Well goes from St. Louie down to Missouri Oklahoma city looks oh so pretty You’ll see Amarillo and Gallup, New Mexico Flagstaff, Arizona don’t forget Winona Kingman, Barstow, San Bernardino Would you get hip to this kindly tip And go take that California trip Get your kicks on Route 66 -Bob Dylan, ‘Route 66′ Unfortunately,… [Read more]
What if the United States were more egalitarian, more socially harmonious, cleaner and safer, and had not embarked upon the route to global superpowerhood? One possible answer is, ‘Canada’. Having returned from a trip to Toronto and Montreal, I thought I’d share some observations. First impressions (actually my fifth visit, though the first in many… [Read more]
Well, that was a pretty short-lived bounce. Just when all the long-only guys were starting to think that this could be the bottom, another set of dire US housing data spoils the party. This time, existing home sales fell to a ten-year low, while jobless claims jumped. As a result, Risk Watchdog is comfortable staying… [Read more]
G7 stocks are bouncing, but some emerging market equity indices continue to look dicey. The benchmark Russian RTS equity index has sold off 15.2% in the last two months and is now trading close to a key trendline support level at 2,100, at one point trading at 2,125 on July 23. A firm breach of… [Read more]
Recent moves in the natural gas market do not bode well for higher oil prices in the near term, as the chart below suggests (click on the chart for a closer look). The dashed line is the front-month Henry Hub natural gas future (right-hand axis), and the solid line is front-month Brent Crude oil (left-hand… [Read more]