Overestimating Obama?
Barack Obama is the man of the moment, and he is already acting as if president, having concluded a whirlwind tour of Europe and the Middle East. Certainly, his popularity abroad reflects hopes of a more benign US foreign policy, after the Bush years. However, I suspect that should Obama be elected president (which is far from certain), he would end up dashing the hopes of many – both at home and abroad.
For a start, anything Obama says about foreign policy at this stage should not be taken at face value. US foreign policy – indeed, the foreign policy of most countries for that matter – is characterised more by continuity than abrupt shifts. This is because foreign policy is determined by the ‘realities of power’ rather than idealistic rhetoric. For example, both Bill Clinton and George W. Bush signalled a tougher line against China than their predecessors during their first election campaigns, yet ended up being China-friendly once in office.
Secondly, while Obama is keen to improve foreign perceptions of the US, his main constituent will be the American public. As such, if he became president, he would be under tremendous pressure, especially from Republicans, not to be soft on international security issues. Indeed, he may have to adopt a tougher stance than John McCain, who has stronger national security credentials, to prove himself. This continuity of the Bush years would be all the more disappointing for Obama’s current global fans, precisely because their hopes have been raised so high.
Alternatively, there is a danger that Obama may be too keen to demonstrate a different tack from the Bush years, and this could lead him to make hasty foreign policy decisions, such as withdrawing US troops from Iraq too quickly or being too soft on Iran (or Pakistan for that matter, since it is arguably a bigger threat). Although Obama is likely to have experienced advisors, his own inexperience in international affairs could embolden America’s long-standing (and experienced) enemies.
Finally, in January 2009, a putative President Obama would surely be under heavy pressure to prioritise reviving the US economy rather than clocking up foreign policy achievements. At the moment, the economy is a bigger concern to American voters than obscure Islamist leaders in faraway countries (though this could change quickly if there is another terrorist attack).
Thus, the initial months of a putative Obama presidency would likely be a particularly uncertain time for US foreign policy, probably more so than if John McCain were elected.