Georgia: Some Basic Conclusions
Although the war in Georgia is still in full swing, it isn’t too soon to reach some basic conclusions:
President Mikheil Saakashvili has seriously overplayed his hand. He either assumed Russian Prime Minister Putin would be too busy having fun at the Beijing Olympics to respond quickly to the assault on South Ossetia, or he deliberately sought to provoke Russia, perhaps counting on the US/NATO to ride to his rescue. Either way, he misjudged the situation catastrophically. While patriotism may cause a rally-round-the-flag atmosphere in the short term, if I were Georgian I’d be very keen to know how the country has benefited from all this, once the dust settles.
Russia’s response is clearly aimed at punishing Georgia, rather than restoring the status quo ante bellum. Russia could have declared victory after driving the Georgians out of South Ossetia, but is now using the opportunity to settle some scores with Saakashvili, whom Moscow loathes for steering the country on an anti-Russian and pro-US stance. Indeed, it’s possible that some hardliners are pleased at Saakashvili’s challenge. As Chekhov said, ‘if there’s a rifle hanging on the wall in the first act of the drama, it should fire in the second or third act’.
At this stage, Russia’s riskiest option would be to march on Tbilisi and overthrow Saakashvili himself, although this would likely lead to uproar from the US and other Western capitals.
Russia clearly seeks to discredit Georgia as an investment destination and transport corridor for Caspian energy to European markets. Georgia has been running very high profile foreign investment advertisements on CNN and in the Wall Street Journal recently, touting its rapid growth and free market path, but this success could be jeopardised if investors perceive the country as vulnerable to future wars.
The US and Europe have very few options to retaliate. Even if the US were not thinly stretched militarily in Iraq and Afghanistan, it would be extremely dangerous for a military intervention against Russian troops, so close to Russia itself. US and Russian (Soviet) troops fought each other in secret in Korea and Vietnam, but never publicly. It would be virtually impossible to cover up any large-scale armed US involvement this time round. As if to demonstrate what might happen, UK television broadcaster BBC One screened Crimson Tide last night, a 1995 film which focuses on a near nuclear confrontation between the US and Russia over Washington’s interference in the Caucasus.
At best, the US and Europe would have to use economic levers. However, would European leaders really want to risk jeopardising their energy security and economic opportunities in Russia for Georgia, a country of only 5.5 million?
Everything said now must be taken with salt. Both Georgia and Russia have every incentive to discredit each other in the propaganda war. Casualty figures will be disputed, as will destruction claims and even ‘facts on the ground’.
The Ossetia war is a predictable consequence of the independence of Kosovo. I have warned for some time that Kosovo’s secession from Serbia could lead other repressed minorities to seek the same for themselves. Unfortunately, all the principal actors are guilty of inconsistencies. Georgia cherishes its post-1991 independence, while denying it for secessionist territories such as South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The US insists on Georgia’s territorial integrity while wilfully supporting the independence of Kosovo from Serbia. Russia supports South Ossetian separatism, yet crushed the independence of Chechnya and also publicly opposed Kosovo’s secession. Essentially, the era of the 1648 Treaty of Westphalia (guaranteeing state sovereignty) could finally be at a close.
Ultimately, with frozen conflicts now being defrosted, I see a risk of renewed separatism in the region. Essentially, everything might be up for grabs. Just to remind myself what this would entail, I re-read the Caucasus chapters of Robert D. Kaplan’s Eastward To Tartary over the weekend, and highly recommend them. Sadly, I am also reminded of Georgian-born singer Katie Melua’s words, ‘This is the closest thing to crazy…’ The Black Sea-Caucasus-Caspian region has great economic potential, but this could be set back years, depending on how long the war lasts.
August 12th, 2008 at 1:01 pm BST
I think you should publish the name or nickname of each blogger with their posts. The posts are quite personal, and it would be better to know who is writing them.