Europe: A Coming Power Shift
Britain’s population is projected to be the biggest in the European Union by 2060, according to a new report by Eurostat published on August 26. The UK’s population will rise by 25% from 61.3mn to 76.7mn, while Germany’s will shrink from 82.2mn to 70.8mn. France’s population will also overtake Germany’s, rising from 61.9mn to 71.8mn. Immigration and high birth rates will be the key factor driving Britain’s population higher.
These findings cannot help but imply a major shift in power and wealth in Europe over the next 52 years. Germany has long been the most populous and wealthiest country in Europe, and indeed, the de facto centre of the continent (I only have figures going back to 1950; prior to this, measurements become tricky, because the UK, France and Germany have all seen territorial changes in the preceding century). However, with Britain and France becoming bigger, Germany’s political and economic clout in Europe will surely diminish.
Interestingly, Donald Rumsfeld’s ‘New Europe’ will not be a growth area for much longer. Countries such as Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania and Romania will all see their populations fall by more than 20%. The big unknown, of course, is Turkey. Eurostat did not include Turkey in its report because it is not in the EU, but by 2060, Turkish leaders certainly hope it will be a member. The UN forecasts Turkey’s population at 98.9mn by 2050, making it the biggest hypothetical EU member. Yet this very possibility will probably continue to keep many European chancelleries reluctant to allow such a powerful entity into the EU, especially if Turkey is more overtly Islamist in character by then. This gives Turkey’s current secular-Islamist political struggle added significance for the future of Europe. Whether the EU survives until 2060 is a bigger question, but if it does not, then the power shift I spoke of above will determine which countries are the dominant players.