US: A Reality Check On Obama’s Foreign Policy
Now that the initial euphoria surrounding Barack Obama’s election as US president has dissipated somewhat, it is time to take a more sober look at the geopolitical implications of his presidency.
One of Obama’s biggest tasks will be to shore-up the United States’ global position in the wake of its financial meltdown, and years of anti-Americanism under George W. Bush. With this in mind, I am somewhat concerned that once the initial global elation dies down, Obama will disappoint his fans at home and abroad. So many have invested such high hopes in him, that I fear that he will eventually struggle to meet expectations.
For the outside world, it is important to remember that Obama’s most important constituency is the American public, and not proud Kenyans and Indonesians, European liberals, the Islamic world, nor the Japanese town that shares his name. Thus, with Obama’s foreign policy credentials having been questioned during the campaign, he will be under pressure to demonstrate that he will not be flakey with regards to dealing with America’s enemies.
Indeed, there is a risk that moderation on Obama’s part may be perceived as weakness in Tehran, Pyongyang, and elsewhere. In the worst case, Obama might find that extending the hand of friendship may not necessarily endear him to America’s enemies, but will undermine his security credentials at home. In other words, if he seeks to please everyone, he risks pleasing no-one.
Many Competitors Out There
Ultimately, from a geopolitical perspective, Obama must decide which country or force represents the biggest challenge to the US, and build up the necessary allies against it. (I am not saying that ‘America needs enemies’, but there is no question that it has strong competitors/opponents.) However, this is easier said than done.
If Obama decides that Islamic militancy and the ‘War on Terror’ are still the strategic priorities, this will necessitate strong relations with Russia, and forgiveness for its August 2008 war with Georgia. It will also necessitate ongoing engagement with China, and not haranguing Beijing over its yuan currency policy.
If on the other hand Obama decides that Russia is America’s gravest challenge, then this might require a winding down of US operations in Iraq (which he seems to favour anyway) and the possibly the ‘War on Terror’ too, and a strengthening of NATO, including its possible expansion eastwards. My own feeling is that Russia is weaker than it looks, especially with oil prices coming down.
If Obama deems China to be America’s greatest challenge, he will certainly need to ensure a solid relationship with Russia, in order to drive a wedge between Moscow and Beijing, the core of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (a sort of Eurasian NATO unofficially designed to reduce Western influence in energy-rich Central Asia).
My point is that the US probably lacks the means to challenge Islamic militancy, Russia, and China at the same time. Thus, a key risk I see is that any of the three may be tempted to test Obama early in his term. For example, Beijing clearly used the collision between a US spyplane and a Chinese fighter jet in the South China Sea in March 2001 to test George W. Bush only two months in office. I am not saying that such incidents will be deliberately engineered; rather I mean that should these occur, they could easily be manipulated by the participants to gauge Obama on broader issues.
Overall, I believe that despite the US’ financial woes, its superpower status is not under threat, as I mentioned in a recent Special Report published on Business Monitor Online. America’s dominance in the economic, diplomatic, military, and soft power spheres is simply too great over any other rival.
Obama’s election reinforces my point. Whatever one thinks of Obama, the fact that a half-Kenyan American with ties to Indonesia can be elected president says a lot about the US’ openness, and this is one of its greatest strengths. I cannot think of any other country where this is possible. (Canada’s governor-general is a Haitian immigrant, but she is an appointee and has no executive powers.)
November 12th, 2008 at 1:43 am
I agree in that the U.S. does not have the strength to challenge China, Russia AND Islamic militancy. From what President-elect Obama has said, he is planning to place the U.S. on the strategic defensive. I personally believe that U.S. ‘soft’ targets will begin to be hit again by Islamic terrorists. I doubt China and Russia are interested in direct conflict. I do not doubt that Islamic terrorists are seeking it. We should find out within the first few years of Obama’s Presidency.