One useful indicator of when countries will slip into recession or economic downturn is the completion dates of major skyscrapers. I’ve checked lists of major tall buildings, and almost all countries were entering a bleak period economically when prominent towers were completed or nearing completion. (The Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat provides a useful list.)

The list is too neat to be a coincidence. Here’s a list from selected countries:

• The Empire State Building: Completed 1931, as the US was entering the Great Depression.

• New York’s World Trade Centre and Chicago’s Sears Tower: Completed in 1973 and 1974 respectively, when the US suffered from the oil shock.

• London’s Canary Wharf Tower: Completed in 1991, when the UK was in severe recession. Ditto Frankfurt’s Messeturm, which was at the time the tallest building in Europe.

• Yokohama’s Landmark Tower: Japan’s tallest building was completed in 1993, just as the country was entering what turned out to be its ‘lost decade’.

• Bangkok’s Baiyoke II Tower: This was completed in 1997, the same year that the baht currency went into meltdown, taking the Thai economy with it.

• Malaysia’s Petronas Towers: These were conceived as a symbol of Malaysia’s emerging wealth and power. Unfortunately, they were completed in 1998, the second year of Asia’s financial collapse.

• Even North Korea is not immune from this curse. The outer structure of Pyongyang’s 105-storey Ryugyong Hotel was completed in 1992, a year after North Korea’s trading relations with historic allies Russia and China were cut back, causing it severe economic difficulty.

This pattern is no surprise. Skyscrapers are conceived in boom times, and by the time designs have been finalized, planning permission approved, and the last cranes removed, economies are typically in a downturn. Some, of course, never get past the drawing board, as was the case with Obayashi Corp’s 500-storey 2,000m high Aeropolis – but they do capture the economic zeitgeist.

With this in mind, it’s worth looking at current projects’ completion dates for future economic malaise. Several are potentially worrisome:

• The Burj Dubai, which will be the world’s tallest skyscraper (800+ metres, with 160 floors), is due to be completed in mid-2009. Will it mark the end of the Middle East’s boom?

• Although the Shanghai World Financial Centre (China’s tallest building) was finished in 2008, an even taller building, the Shanghai Centre, is due for completion in 2014. Will it coincide with China’s first recession? Or should we still be worried about the former building?

• The APIIC Tower (100 storeys) in Hyderabad is due to be ready in 2010. Does this spell doom for India?

• Moscow’s 118-storey Russia Tower is due in 2012. By that time we should have a clearer picture of the country’s long-term economic direction.

I see that Brazil has no major skyscrapers under construction. Perhaps this will spare it a major downturn. Alas, though, Panama has a handful of major skyscrapers planned over the next few years.

However, just to end on a positive note, all those empty skyscrapers should provide plenty of cheap office space for when economies pick up.

Tags: economic downturn, recession, Skyscrapers
Posted in: Asia, China, Emerging Europe, General, Latin America, Middle East, UK, US
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