It turns out – according to the advance estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, anyway – that the US economy contracted by 3.8% on a quarter-on-quarter annualised basis. Your friendly neighbourhood Watchdog has the data in front of him, and can report that there is both good and bad news to take from the… [Read more]

Alas, there seems to be no end to Afghanistan’s woes in sight. Just last week US Defense Secretary Robert (Bob) Gates described Afghanistan as America’s greatest military challenge, and on Thursday it was announced that presidential elections scheduled for May will be delayed until August 20. Both developments reflect the deteriorating security situation, which is… [Read more]

As a foreign investor, you couldn’t have done much worse than investing in the Nigerian stock market in 2009 (OK, you could have bought Zimbabwe dollars). With the Lagos All-Share Index down 27.5% since January 1, it’s the worst performing equity index in the world so far this year. Add to that a 9.2% drop… [Read more]

Of the 32 sovereign states in the emerging Europe region, 19 maintain fixed pegs or heavily managed exchange rate regimes (eight others have floating currencies and five utilise the euro). Thus far, only five of the 19 have made significant devaluations despite a clear regional trend of capital outflows, slowing growth and rapidly declining export… [Read more]

By now you’ll be well aware that the strong yen is crippling Japanese exports, and by extension the economy as a whole, but less widely discussed is the impact this is having on Japan’s tourism industry. With Japanese firms having shifted so many manufacturing jobs to China in recent years, and with an ageing and… [Read more]

Last year, I came up with a new acronym to describe a group of economies in Asia that exists largely on the margins of the world – BLANKs (Burma, Laos, Afghanistan, and North Korea). Given their disconnectedness from global investment flows and trade, surely they will not be affected by the current recession? Actually, no…. [Read more]

As the charts below show, the JAMAICAN DOLLAR IS IN FREEFALL versus the US dollar. As the charts below also show, it’s just hit a NEW HIGH AGAINST STERLING. I’m no maths genius, but to me this suggests that the UK is in serious, serious trouble. Now I don’t want to be harsh to Jamaica,… [Read more]