The US Q1 GDP numbers released yesterday were, bluntly put, a horror show. They were not, however, wholly unexpected by yours truly — I had expected a slightly better but still dismal outturn compared with Q408’s -6.3% q-o-q annualised number. And that’s basically what we got: a -6.1% reading.

Have a look at the underlying numbers. [Read more...]

In Business Monitor International’s second weekly podcast Mark Schaltuper speaks to Justin Patrie about the economic outlook for Central and Eastern Europe. How will the region perform compared to the Asian Financial Crisis of 1998?

 

 CEE 2009 vs Asia 1998 [10:41m]
Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

In my opinion, South Africa’s 2009 parliamentary elections have been an extraordinary event in many respects. Perhaps most importantly, the ruling African National Congress (ANC) scored a decisive electoral victory, gaining 65.9% of all votes, with the Democratic Alliance (DA) and the Congress of the People (COPE) clearly trailing behind at 16.7% and 7.4%, respectively. [Read more...]

An age-old and overused proverb goes something as follows: ‘when the US sneezes, Mexico catches a cold’ – a reference usually labelled at the Latin American country’s inexorable commercial linkages to its northern neighbour. Well, this time it could be (quite literally) the other way around, with the US declaring a state of public health [Read more...]

With Q1 2009 GDP data emerging, many people are asking, ‘is this the bottom of the current recession?’

My point of view is that if Q1 2009 is not the bottom, then H1 2009 (i.e. the first half of 2009) probably is.

In this regard, there have been some encouraging signs in Asia. The pace [Read more...]

As China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) celebrates its 60th anniversary today, one thing we can be reasonably sure of is that it will expand dramatically over the coming decades, as the country seeks to protect its global supply chains and become a world power.

China’s economy has become more open to international trade over the [Read more...]

For the first time in nine months, Japanese exporters had reason to cheer in March after shipments fell just 45.6% compared to the equivalent year-ago period. Yes, that’s correct: a 45.6% y-o-y contraction in exports is now considered to be good news in Japan. To be sure, it will have positively been music to exporters’ [Read more...]