China’s Navy: Global PLANs
As China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) celebrates its 60th anniversary today, one thing we can be reasonably sure of is that it will expand dramatically over the coming decades, as the country seeks to protect its global supply chains and become a world power.
China’s economy has become more open to international trade over the past 20 years, and its sheer expansion means that it must increasingly meet its commodity needs through external suppliers. This in turn has necessitated a diversification of its trade partners, and by extension, a diversification of its main shipping routes (e.g. to and from Africa, Australia, and Brazil).
Moreover, with international piracy on the increase, Beijing naturally wants to assume greater control over protecting its logistical chain. In addition, it appears that some PLAN planners (excuse the funny phrase) are resentful that the US, with its global naval preponderance, still dominates the waters on which China depends, including the South China Sea.
Furthermore, China is aspiring to World Power status. And in order to achieve this, it needs a stronger navy. In this respect, it is worth considering the writings of US navy captain Alfred Thayer Mahan, who published The Influence of Seapower Upon History, 1660-1783 in 1890. Mahan argued that control of the oceans was critical to military victory. Given that two-thirds of the Earth’s surface is water, and the importance of global trade, it’s not hard to understand why.
The funny thing is that China actually had a global (by the standards of the time) navy in the early 1400s, sending expeditions to the Middle East and Africa. However, China’s leaders subsequently decided to abandon these voyages and destroy their fleet, apparently owing to their high cost and their inward focus. It is impossible to know how history might have been otherwise, but China is now making up for lost time.
For example, China is slowly seeking to establish a ‘string of pearls’ along the northern edge of the Indian Ocean, which entails naval basing arrangements with Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan. Perhaps this is exaggerated, but it shows ambition. In this regard, the Indian Ocean is emerging as a new sphere of great power competition.
China is also likely to develop aircraft carriers. At present, it only has a scrapped carrier shell purchased from Ukraine.
That said, there are formidable obstacles to China attaining naval dominance in Asia, let alone the world. These are:
- The sheer time it takes to develop advanced ships/carriers and train personnel.
- The fact that the US navy has decades more of experience in global naval operations.
- India and Japan are not sitting still. Both are boosting their own naval capabilities, despite substantial financial constraints.
Nonetheless, defence planners in Washington, New Delhi, and Tokyo will be watching warily. Yet in many ways their concerns may be overstated. It is quite natural for China to seek greater control over its trade security. Ultimately, a stronger Chinese navy could work together with those of its competitors to reduce threats such as global piracy.
