‘What happened to the ‘sell in May’ brigade?’ is the question on Risk Watchdog’s lips today. They certainly haven’t shown up across the Emerging Markets (EM) equity spectrum, going by the massive gains enjoyed across the board of late. Take the BRICs, for example, where year-to-date performances have been nothing short of spectacular…

The rally in Latin stocks since the lows of October 2008 has been nothing short of incredible. Some of the markets have risen by over 100%, and viewing the moves in dollar terms, the gains have been even more impressive/absurd. With such huge gains, it begs the question to Risk Watchdog of whether this is [Read more...]

The first in a series of podcasts looking at the implications of Chinese credit line extensions to emerging markets, in return for resources. This podcast focuses on the role of the recent inventory build up and future oil supply procurement by Chinese firms on global commodity markets.

 

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Moldova is in the midst of yet another political crisis. By this, I actually mean that the country has entered a new phase of a pre-existing crisis – a crisis that yields valuable lessons on the broader significance of political institutions to a country’s risk profile. Fortunately, this new scene in the ongoing drama has [Read more...]

One thing I’ve been trying to get my head round lately are long-term economic growth forecasts out to 2050. The best known of these are produced by Goldman Sachs (see Dreaming With BRICs: The Path to 2050), but other investment houses have them too.

Having pored over these over the bank holiday weekend, I have to [Read more...]

The North Korean nuclear crisis has been going on for so long now, and has become so repetitive, that like various US high-suspense TV dramas such as ‘24’ and ‘Lost’, it is losing its ability to shock. The cast of characters changes slightly, but the themes and events are fairly constant. (The only real shock [Read more...]

Some investors have been astonished by the run–up in raw material prices so far this year – after all, chocolate was not supposed to be high on the shopping list in a global recession! Well, the resurgence of commodities should not come as a surprise to Risk Watchdog’s faithful readership. My colleagues at BMI have [Read more...]