North Korea Nuclear Crisis (Season 19, Episode 17)
The North Korean nuclear crisis has been going on for so long now, and has become so repetitive, that like various US high-suspense TV dramas such as ‘24’ and ‘Lost’, it is losing its ability to shock. The cast of characters changes slightly, but the themes and events are fairly constant. (The only real shock on the Korean peninsula of late was the very sad suicide of former South Korean president Roh Moo-hyun, over corruption allegations.)
That is why when I awoke this morning to news of Pyongyang’s second ever nuclear test (the first was in October 2006), I was surprised only in the timing – they had brought forward this season’s cliffhanger by several months… which of course begs what is next.
But before I go on, my views on North Korea’s nuclear test can best be summarised by my blog post, ‘There’s No Stopping Kim Jong Il’ of April 6, 2009, in the wake of Pyongyang’s long-range missile test. Essentially, for every reference to ‘missile test’, substitute ‘nuclear weapons [test]’, and the post still reads true. In fact, I warned of the possibility of a second nuclear test back in February (see If You Want Peace, Prepare For War).
This Season’s Cliffhangers (Warning! May Contain Spoilers)
In view of what I said, what genuine surprises may be in store for the finale of this long running series? Here are some thoughts:
Obama goes to Pyongyang: The US realises that nothing can be done to disarm North Korea. With this in mind, US President Barack Obama visits Pyongyang for a hug-and-handshake summit with Kim Jong Il. The two sign a non-aggression treaty and Pyongyang verifiably promises not to develop any more nukes. US, South Korean and Japanese aid flows into North Korea, and economic growth takes off. Season 19 ends on a high note, until the last scene, when, the camera zooms in on a) a secret nuke facility; b) Korean missiles locking onto Air Force One; c) Obama being impeached for his concessionary approach; d) Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad conferring with Kim over Obama’s naivety.
Japan and South Korea go nuclear: Realising that nothing can be done to disarm North Korea, defence hawks in Japan and South Korea decide that their only guaranteed deterrence against Pyongyang’s threats is to develop their own nuclear weapons (and potentially test them). Japan is widely believed to have the technology to do so, and has a space rocket programme that would provide it with missiles. South Korea had a nuclear weapons programme in the 1970s which it only reluctantly gave up under US pressure, and it conducted nuclear experiments in the early 2000s. It too could go nuclear. This would be a serious ‘game-changer’, for it would make Tokyo and Seoul less dependent on the US for security. Also, China would not wish to see a nuclear Japan in particular, since it would regard this as a check on its regional ambitions. The season’s final scene could be Taiwan going nuclear too, for fear of not wanting to be left behind in the nuclear race. The result is a much more heavily-armed Northeast Asia in the next season.
North Korea collapses: Succumbing to economic pressures, or a deadly power struggle following the sudden death of Kim Jong Il, North Korea collapses, and civil war breaks out. China, South Korea, and the US send in troops to stabilise the country, but they are too late to prevent the nuclear weapons being smuggled out by recalcitrant North Korean generals, and possibly passed on to terrorists and/or Iran.
I am sure there are other ‘season finales’ I have not anticipated, but what does seem clear to me is that this tired and clichéd saga still has some way to run!