The End Of The US Recession - What Comes Next?
Wed Jul 1, 2009 16:40 UTC
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In light of recent economic data from the US, Tim Cooper - Global Economic Strategist at Business Monitor International - suggests that the US recession may now be over. However, he believes that there is little to cheer about at this stage, as the recovery process will be very prolonged and slow.
End Of The US Recession [10:33m]
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Tags: capacity utilisation, consumer confidence, deflation, double-dip recession, Durable Goods New Orders, emerging markets, Federal Reserve, financial stocks, inflation, interest rates, US recession
Posted in: Equities, Financials, General, Inflation/Deflation, Podcast, US
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July 6th, 2009 at 8:10 am UTC
But what about Europe? Will it end in Europe too? Because the Recession process just started in Europe just
July 6th, 2009 at 11:35 am UTC
Funny you should bring this up. Over the weekend my colleagues at BMI took a look at their Italy forecasts – which are below consensus. We have become increasingly convinced that many institutes and international organisations have overshot to the downside with their expectations for 2009. Take a look at Q109: Real GDP growth in Italy was -6.0%, and some full-year forecasts are in the low -5.0% range. This 2009 number would imply not much improvement over the full year despite the already low base effects from which the fourth quarter of this year is being calculated from. In other words, if we work off the premise that the first half of 2009 was the trough of the recession, and see a moderating of the recession (still in negative territory, but with the pace of y-o-y decline slowing), then we are looking at an ‘L-shaped’ recovery. This ties in with BMI’s view of the Italian economy moving towards a small (less than +1.0%) expansion in 2010.