Russia 2012: Who Will Be President?
There’s been renewed speculation about the 2012 Russian presidential election of late, with both incumbent Dmitri Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin both hinting that they could run. If both do so, then there could be a genuinely competitive race for the first time since 1996.
The Medvedev-Putin double-act was always a bit awkward. Putin only stepped down from the presidency in 2008 because the constitution limits the holder to two consecutive terms. In many ways, though, it was a risky move for him to downshift into the prime ministerial chair, since the Russian presidency carries enormous power, including command of the armed forces and the authority to dismiss the premier. Nonetheless, Putin obviously felt sufficiently confident in his informal authority and the pliability of Medvedev to let go. Now, however, Medvedev appears to be getting ideas about being his own man. This could mean a potentially destabilising power struggle at the top, which could lead to policy confusion and uncertainty, and hurt the economy.
Russia’s History Shows That Duumvirates Seldom Last
Russian history suggests that two (or more) leaders simultaneously vying for power usually lead to one man prevailing. As Lenin’s power waned, Stalin emerged as supremo. When Stalin died, a three-way power struggle between Georgi Malenkov, Nikolai Bulganin and Nikita Khrushchev led to the latter prevailing. After Khrushchev was removed in 1964, Leonid Brezhnev and Alexei Kosygin assumed the top posts of party general-secretary and premier respectively, but Brezhnev quickly eclipsed Kosygin. Brezhnev’s own successors were too short-lived to fit the pattern, but Mikhail Gorbachev was briefly ousted by his hand-picked vice-president (not to mention other key ministers) in August 1991. In fact, from 1991 the Soviet Union’s leadership was increasingly a duumvirate of Soviet president Gorbachev and Russian president Boris Yelstin, until the USSR was dissolved at the end of that year.
Boris Yeltsin abolished the post of vice-president in 1993 after his running mate, Alexander Rutskoi, led a coup against him that autumn. Towards the end of his term, and especially after Russia defaulted in 1998, Yeltsin had to share power with several prime ministers, Viktor Chernomyrdin and Yevgeny Primakov among them, though he fired them as they became too powerful. Yeltsin then appointed Putin in August 1999, and stepped aside in his favour on the last day of the previous millennium. Putin has never really had a powerful number two to challenge him, but it appears that Medvedev could at least be preparing to do so.
It’s early days yet, and both Medvedev and Putin enjoy high popularity. However, the two could easily drift apart over the future direction of Russia, whether in terms of economic reform, domestic political liberties, or foreign policy. More will be at stake in the 2012 election, because from thenceforth, the presidential term will last six years instead of four. Both men are young enough to remain politically active for another generation.
