The EM Outlook: Risks And Opportunities In The Next Decade
On November 12, Business Monitor International hosted a major investors’ conference on the risks, opportunities and outlook for emerging markets over the coming decade. Justin Patrie talks with senior BMI strategists Terry Alexander and Tim Cooper about some of the themes and surprises that emerged from the conference. Highlighted topics include EM outperformance, structural drivers of growth, the role of China and risks to the convergence play.
November 18th, 2009 at 3:03 am UTC
A superb podcast! It will be interesting to see how Russia will handle the carry-trade how Putin/Medvedev will react.
November 18th, 2009 at 3:17 am UTC
Sorry, commented too quickly. Certainly agree with the renminbi revaluation. Amazed at China’s PR, it only seems that labor (labour, sorry) unions and economists seem to agree on this; certainly a rare pairing.
Something I don’t get is the constant search to ascertain who is “responsible” for the crisis. It just strikes me as painfully foolish. But as one of your participants noted it was partly in jest. I just read in this week’s Economist that there is a new book out discussing how crisis evolve: How Markets Fail: The Logic of Economic Calamities. By John Cassidy. Link: http://www.economist.com/books/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14843529
I’m looking forward to reading it.
November 18th, 2009 at 10:57 am UTC
Thank you for the comments Brian.
As you pointed out, the question on ‘who to blame for the crisis’ was mainly meant to provoke discussion about the structural risks and problems in the global economy and capital market as opposed to rooting out a specific guilty party. By focusing in on the risks (in a light-hearted way), we thought this would be a good way to highlight some of the strategic opportunities in Emerging Markets. For example, the need and consensus toward Chinese revaluation comes in large part from a recognition that the PRC’s exchange rate policy was a factor contributing to the macroeconomic imbalances in the global economy. By understanding China’s role and likely revaluation, we can also begin to look at the potential sectoral opportunities to result from an increasing focus on domestic consumption in the country. ie. greater potential for consumer and retail plays at the expense of exporters.
November 19th, 2009 at 7:16 pm UTC
Oh definitely. I think that these imbalances will continue to create problems. An overused quote is most appropriate when discussing Sino-US economic relations: “If you owe the bank $100 that’s your problem. If you owe the bank $100 million, that’s the bank’s problem.” - J.Paul Getty.
Anyway, look forward to your next podcast!