Circassians Add To Russia’s North Caucasus Woes
The Circassians are shaping up to be another headache for the Kremlin in the North Caucasus. President Dmitri Medvedev recently described rising violence in the region as Russia’s biggest domestic problem. Not long after that, bombs exploded on the Moscow-St Petersburg Nevsky Express train, killing at least 25 people. Chechen separatist rebels were quick to claim responsibility for the attack.
Thus far, the main areas of violence in the North Caucasus have been Chechnya, Ingushetia and Dagestan, and this will probably remain the case. However, there have been reports recently that the Circassians have been asserting their national aspirations. Just in case you have never heard of them, the Circassians are a North Caucasian people consisting of smaller groups, namely the Kabardins, Cherkess, Adyges, and several others. They are spread among the ethnic republics of Kabardino-Balkaria, Karachay-Cherkessia, and Adygea, which bear their names but which they share with other groups. They also have extensive diasporas in Turkey and Jordan which could conceivably be mobilised in their support.
One risk for the Kremlin is that some Circassian groups have been pushing for administrative borders to be redrawn to incorporate a pan-Circassian republic. However, given that the North Caucasus consists of dozens of ethnic groups, many of whom do not get on, any reconfiguration of borders – even within the context of the Russian state – would be hugely risky. Meanwhile, Circassians are unhappy that new developments in Sochi (their one-time capital) ahead of the 2014 Winter Olympics will overshadow the 150th anniversary of their deportation from the region in 1864. While the Circassian republics have thus far avoided the kind of violence seen further south, the problem is unlikely to disappear soon.
So what will be Russia’s response? Probably more troop deployments to the region in a bid to bring stability. In fact, there have been suggestions that the Kremlin might quadruple its troops in the North Caucasus in 2010. However, strong-arm tactics have failed, and in some cases have only alienated locals. In addition, more Russian troops would increase tensions with Georgia after the 2008 war.
One thing seems certain: we will here much more about the North Caucasus over the coming years.