As the 2000s draw to a close, now is an opportune time to reflect on the big political events of the past decade, and what the future might hold.

First, here is an overview of the main events of the past decade:

• The rise of China and India (and emerging markets more broadly)

• The revival of Russia under Vladimir Putin

• The ‘pariah-isation’ of Zimbabwe

• Peace in the Balkans

• The failed Palestinian intifada

• 9/11, the ‘war on terror’, and the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq

• Turkey’s shift towards moderate Islamist government

• ‘Coloured’ revolutions in the former Soviet Union and attempts elsewhere

• The end of the Iran-West rapprochement and the rise of Ahmadinejad

• North Korea’s declaration as a nuclear power

• The rise and fall of the anti-globalisation movement

• The rise of climate change as a serious political issue

• The fall-out from the ‘Great Recession’ of 2008-09

Based on the above, I’d say that the most globally transformative will be the rise of China and India, although these are long-term trends that have much further to run (and are not guaranteed). However, I’d also like to point out what has not happened (contrary to some expectations):

• No Islamist revolutions in Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Pakistan

• No new 9/11-style terror attacks in the US

• No new wars in traditional flashpoints such as Korea, India-Pakistan, China-Taiwan, etc

• No shift towards political extremism despite the worst global recession since the 1930s

What To Look Out For

In a recent Special Report, Global Political Outlook 2010-2019, available on Business Monitor Online, I outlined specific events and trends to watch out for.

Below, however, I outline some more philosophical thoughts:

• Do not assume that what is politically fashionable / significant in one decade will be important in the next (e.g. the Balkans in the 1990s).

• Beware of ‘linearist’ views. Do not assume that what is rising or declining in one decade will continue on that course in the next (e.g. Japan’s unstoppable ascent in the 1980s was halted in the 1990s; Russia’s decline in the 1990s was reversed in the 2000s).

• Keep an eye on seemingly obscure places and disputes that might flare up and draw in the Great Powers (e.g. South Ossetia).

• Do not assume that the most durable of regimes will survive indefinitely. Be mindful of the speed at which political change can take place, when it does (possibly in Iran, North Korea, Myanmar).

• Keep an eye on larger-than-life individuals who might make a big difference, for better or worse (e.g. Lula, Obama, Osama, Ahmadinejad)

• Do not ignore gender issues. The increasing role of women in economies can lead to dramatic social and political change.

• Watch for resource pressures. The UN forecasts the world’s population rising from 6.9 billion in 2010 to 7.7 billion by 2020.

• Read articles or books on seemingly ‘wild card’ scenarios, such as terrorism, natural disasters, global pandemics, and cyber-warfare, so that they do not catch you completely by surprise.

Tags: 2010, black swans, coming decade, forecast, Political Risks, wild card
Posted in: Africa, Asia, China, Emerging Europe, General, Geopolitics, Latin America, Middle East, Political Risk, US
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