Cliffhanger Ending To The 2000s
As our decade draws to a close, several important developments are taking place that could have a major geopolitical impact in the 2010s.
The first is obviously the foiled Christmas Day plot to destroy Northwest Flight 253 over Detroit. This was a firm reminder that international Islamist terrorism against Western countries is still very much with us, not that it ever truly went away. Had the plot succeeded, at least 300 people would have been killed in the air and on the ground, and the US would be ending the decade in a state of shock and mourning. It would also have put Washington in the awkward position of not knowing how to retaliate, for the US is already in Afghanistan.
The failed plot has also put Yemen under the spotlight. As my colleagues in BMI’s Middle East division warned in our online service today – and indeed have highlighted previously – Yemen is in danger of becoming a failed state. The government is simultaneously fighting rebels in the north and al-Qaeda militants, while contending with secessionists in the south. Meanwhile, the country’s declining oil production, water shortages, and rapidly rising population point to increasing socioeconomic tensions that could eventually lead to chaos. This in turn could allow al-Qaeda to develop deeper roots in Yemen and further destabilise the Arabian Peninsula.
The second key development is the ongoing anti-government unrest in Iran. It is evident that the rifts caused by the disputed 2009 presidential election are far from healed, meaning that internal power struggles and popular protests could continue well into 2010. Either way, the future of Iran will be highly significant not just for the Middle East, but for international politics as a whole.
Thirdly, a Chinese admiral on Wednesday stated that the country should set up a permanent naval base abroad, seemingly referring to the Gulf of Aden. The Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has already been participating in anti-piracy activities in the waters off Somalia, and the logistical difficulties it has faced have apparently highlighted its need for foreign bases. At present, the PLAN lacks such facilities, despite persistent speculation that it is developing a ‘string of pearls’ network of bases in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, and Pakistan. If the PLAN goes ahead with full overseas basing, this will dramatically increase China’s military projection abilities, boosting its ambitions of becoming a global power. Indeed, the growing strength of the PLAN is raising concern among some policymakers in the US, with an article in the latest Orbis journal even speculating about a possible Sino-American naval clash in 2015.
Overall, a real cliffhanger ending to the 2000s, and much to think about for the 2010s.