Yemen: The Next Failed State?
The Christmas Day Detroit airliner plot has put Yemen under the terror spotlight after it emerged that the suspect, Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, lived in Yemen between August and December 2009, and after the Yemen-based Islamist group al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) claimed responsibility for the attempted attack.
Given the intense media attention on the country over the past week or so, a casual observer might be forgiven for thinking that some sudden deterioration in the political or security situation had recently taken place. This is not so, as BMI’s in-depth country risk coverage of the state in recent years attests. Indeed, Yemen’s problems are long-standing, structural, and, sadly, seemingly insolvable. If, as is eminently possible, Yemen collapses into failed statehood over the coming years, it will not be for lack of warning. Here are a few of challenges that face the government:
- The government is at war with Houthi rebels in the northern province of Saada, and faces a popular and well organised secessionist movement in the south.
- Against this backdrop, AQAP has managed to establish itself in Yemen’s eastern provinces, where the reach of state power is relatively weak.
- Yemen’s oil industry is in terminal decline – reserves could be completely depleted within 10 years. As oil revenues make up the bulk of fiscal revenues and goods exports, the end of oil production will have enormous negative implications for the overall economy.
- The country is facing a serious water crisis. It is one of the driest in the Middle East, and its water shortage is exacerbated by the excessive agricultural usage of groundwater, especially in the production of the narcotic qat (which has no nutritional value).
- The UN projects that Yemen’s population, currently estimated at close to 24mn, could double by 2040. Such rapid population growth will put even greater pressure on the country’s water resources and means that unemployment is likely to remain high for the foreseeable future.
Considering the extent of its problems, combating AQAP does not appear to be the government’s top priority right now. Over the long term, however, Yemen’s multifaceted challenges mean that it could be on a path towards failed statehood. In such a scenario, the country could feasibly become the ‘next Afghanistan’ for al-Qaeda.
The Counter Argument
On the other hand, such an outcome is far from inevitable. As mentioned at the start, the Christmas Day plot has woken the international community up to the threat emanating from Yemen. Moreover, it is somewhat ‘lucky’ in that it is located at the entrance of the Red Sea. Given that Somalia, on the opposite side of the Gulf of Aden, is likely to remain lawless and largely ungovernable for years to come, the international community is unlikely to tolerate two failed states on either side of such a major shipping route.
In practical terms, this means that the US and the West are likely to provide increasing levels of economic and military support to President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s pro-Western government. Of greater significance, though, will be the role of Saudi Arabia. Riyadh has possibly the most to fear from failed state harbouring al-Qaeda on its doorstep. After all, one of the terror group’s main goals is to overthrow the House of Saud. Ultimately, Saudi Arabia could reason that propping up the Yemeni government financially is a small price to pay for stability.