Osama’s New Tape: The War On Terror Goes On
There was a time when audio or video messages issued by Osama bin Laden would be front-page news, and we’d all wonder if a new al-Qaeda terror attack was imminent.
However, in recent years, a widespread belief has developed that bin Laden is irrelevant, and that the real terror threat to the West comes from local Islamist militant groups rather than some centralised Bond-villain-esque organisation based in the Afghan-Pakistan border region. Whatever the truth, by claiming responsibility for the Christmas Day 2009 plot to destroy Northwest Flight 253 above Detroit, bin Laden is clearly trying to give the impression that he is still in charge. Bin Laden has also seemingly proved that he is still alive, for even though he has released several audio messages over the past year, some commentators have doubted his continued existence.
The timing of bin Laden’s latest message is noteworthy, coming only a month after the Detroit plot and in the same week that London hosts major conferences on Afghanistan and Yemen – two crucial countries in the ‘war on terror’.
Perhaps the most urgent development is reports cited in several British newspapers over the weekend that al-Qaeda has trained female suicide bombers to attack the West. Some of the would-be bombers are said to be non-Middle Eastern in appearance and carry Western passports, meaning that they would theoretically attract less suspicion at airport security than Middle Eastern or South Asian-looking males. It is unclear whether the reports are referring to Western converts, but certainly there have been instances of female suicide bombers in Iraq, Israel (from Palestinian territories), and Russia (from Chechnya), and also in Sri Lanka (Tamil Tigers).
Overall, it seems highly likely that al-Qaeda and its affiliates will continue trying to attack the West. None of al-Qaeda’s grievances with the Western world – e.g. support for Israel and pro-Western Arab governments, the US military presence in Afghanistan and Iraq, and ongoing airstrikes in Afghanistan and Pakistan – have been soothed, nor are they likely to anytime soon. Also, none of the socioeconomic factors that could lead to radicalisation – e.g. unemployment, lack of perceived opportunities for upward mobility, etc – are likely to disappear soon. While Western countries will feel under pressure, al-Qaeda is arguably under even greater pressure to demonstrate its ability to strike successfully.