My colleagues at Business Monitor International tell me that oil production will be a defining feature of the Ghanaian growth story over the medium-to-long term. In fact, they forecast that over the coming years, growth will be in the double digits and the deficits on the current account and fiscal account will be wiped out. [Read more...]
In an era where a global financial crisis has been caused not by developments in Russia, South-East Asia or Argentina, but by banking insolvency in the United States and sovereign default risks in a eurozone member state, namely Greece, our panel of senior commentators discusses what it means to be an ‘emerging market’. Justin Patrie, [Read more...]
Sugar prices have steadily weakened since they peaked at USc30.40/lb in early February, and are currently trading at USc24.60/lb. I think the technical picture is deteriorating, and this combined with expectations of a loosening market in 2011 suggests that the rally I initially highlighted in August 2009, may be coming to an end.
The monthly, weekly [Read more...]
Regular readers of this blog will know that my colleagues and I have recently been discussing the growing possibility of Israeli military action against Iran’s nuclear programme (I highly recommend listening to Business Monitor’s Podcast on this subject). However, let us now do a little thought experiment: flash forward five years, and imagine that Iran [Read more...]
For all the doom and gloom surrounding European markets on the back of the Greek sovereign crisis and concomitant sell-off in euro and sterling, emerging market currencies in the region still look bid. Traditionally, when EUR/US$ has weakened, so too have benchmark central European cross rates such as PLN/EUR and CZK/EUR. However, this correlation has [Read more...]
The fixed income investment community has been shaken up by growing concerns over Greece’s creditworthiness, which appear to be spreading like a bush fire across eurozone peripheral states. While concerns over significant sovereign credit risk are currently limited to the euro area and Dubai, my colleagues at BMI believe that Latin American government credit, too, [Read more...]
On this week’s Business Monitor Podcast, BMI’s Head of Middle East Analysis Elizabeth Martins and Middle East Analyst Andrew Fargus discuss rising political risks in Iran concerning the nuclear situation. With diplomatic tensions escalating, Fargus assesses the implications of a potential Israeli strike on Iran, and discusses the latter’s retaliatory options. At home, the Iranian [Read more...]
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