Iran: War Risks Escalating
With the announcement on February 11 by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that Iran has produced its first batch of uranium enriched to 20%, the Islamic Republic has moved a step closer to being able to produce a nuclear weapon. Tehran insists that its nuclear programme has no military applications, and that the 20% enriched uranium will be used in a reactor producing medical isotopes. Moreover, with International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors still regularly visiting Iran’s nuclear fuel enrichment plant at Natanz, it would be difficult for the government to divert any of the 20% enriched uranium produced there without being detected.
However, Iran’s latest move comes only months after the discovery by Western intelligence of a secret enrichment facility near Qom, the failure of a nuclear fuel swap deal to materialise, and only days after its atomic energy chief stated on national television that ‘Iran will set up 10 uranium enrichment centres next year.’ In this context, Iran’s decision to produce 20% enriched uranium will further increase regional tensions.
While most Western intelligence estimates do not see Iran being able to produce nuclear weapons for a number of years, Iran’s ability to make weapons-grade uranium is nonetheless likely to grow with time, and is likely to induce a new round of international sanctions on Iran in the near future.
However, there is certainly no guarantee that harsher international sanctions will dissuade Iran from pursuing its nuclear enrichment programme. Indeed, the poor track record of sanctions over the years would suggest otherwise. As a result, the longer the diplomatic impasse continues, the greater the chances of an escalation into outright military confrontation, i.e., an Israeli or US military strike on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear facilities. If this scenario were to play out, oil prices would spike over fears that Iran could attempt to close the Straits of Hormuz, and the Islamic Republic’s allies in Lebanon and the Palestinian Territories, Hizbullah and Hamas respectively, would likely retaliate against Israel. Furthermore, I would not discount Iranian attacks on US bases in the Gulf, and even on Israeli and American interests beyond the Middle East.