Russia’s North Caucasus: What Is To Be Done?
Monday’s twin bombings in the Moscow Metro demonstrate that the war in the North Caucasus is neither over nor just a conflict in a peripheral part of Russia. The Moscow attacks came just four months after the Moscow-St Petersburg railway was bombed, showing that Islamist terrorists are capable of carrying out their threats to take the fight to Russia’s main cities.
While these incidents are not as shocking as the terror campaign in the early 2000s – which included a theatre siege in Moscow, two same-day airliner bombings, and the school siege in Beslan, North Ossetia – there is no question that violence in the North Caucasus has increased over the past year or two. Chechnya is probably the best-known part of the region to the outside world, but neighbouring Ingushetia and Dagestan have seen even greater violence since the start of 2009.
Why The Troubles In The North Caucasus?
There are four main reasons:
- Economic underdevelopment and high rates of unemployment.
- A high degree of political repression.
- Radicalisation of some parts of the Muslim population by foreign Islamists as a legacy of the Chechen wars.
- Re-emergence of historical grievances against Russia, e.g. lobbying by the Circassians to recognise their deportations in the 19th century as a genocide.
What Are The Terrorists Trying To Achieve?
The Islamist radicals have grandiose goals to say the least:
- The expulsion of Russia from the North Caucasus.
- The creation of an Islamist state in the Caucasus, incorporating Chechnya, Dagestan, Ingushetia, North Ossetia, Kabardino-Balkaria, and Karachay-Cherkessia.
- Expansion of influence to other Muslim parts of Russia.
What Is Russia Doing?
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev last year described the North Caucasus as his country’s ‘biggest domestic political problem’. The Kremlin has pursued the following initiatives:
- Substantial federal subsidies and the reconstruction of Chechnya.
- The appointment of ‘strongmen’ such as former Chechen rebel Ramzan Kadyrov and Ingush general Yunus-Bek Yevkurov as republic presidents.
- Active counter-insurgency operations that have resulted in the deaths of key militant leaders.
- The creation of a new federal district under an economic official, Alexander Khloponin, to boost the region’s development.
Why Does The North Caucasus Matter?
The region is strategically important for several reasons:
- The Caucasus is a land bridge between the Caspian and Black Seas.
- Key oil pipelines pass through the region.
- More of the region’s Muslim population could become radicalised by international Islamists, making it a terrorist safe haven similar to Afghanistan or Yemen.
- A loss of Russian control over the North Caucasus could embolden separatist groups in other parts of the country.
- Vladimir Putin based his political ascent on the second Chechen war and Russia’s victory. If the war re-emerges in earnest, it could undermine Putin’s authority.
How Will The Situation Play Out?
I see three possible scenarios:
- Best case: The current insurgency is the ‘last throw of the dice’ by Islamist holdovers from the Chechen wars, and that sustained anti-terror operations combined with federal funding will bring peace. This may, however, be too optimistic.
- Intermediate: The insurgency continues indefinitely at a low (ie manageable) level, with occasional outrages such as the Moscow attack, but without a major breakthrough by the Kremlin or the insurgents. This is a distinct possibility.
- Worst-case: The insurgency gathers new momentum, causing Russia to lose de facto control of the North Caucasus, and raising fears about the safety of the 2014 Winter Olympics, to be held in Sochi, which is near the region. Russia commits more military forces, but ends up trapped in a new quagmire that further detracts from political or economic reform. Moscow and other Russian cities come under new terror attacks. This scenario is far from inevitable, but nor can it be ruled out.