Emerging Market FX: A (Very) Bullish Outlook
Business Monitor’s bullish stance on a host of emerging market (EM) currencies in recent quarters reflects one of our core macroeconomic assumptions, namely that unprecedented quantitative easing and loose fiscal policy measures in the US in 2009 would ultimately foster significant depreciatory forces for the US dollar. While this may not be visible in the EUR/US$ cross rate (given the eurozone’s fair share of its own difficulties) EM FX has become the main beneficiary of this reversal in global capital flows. This week, Mark Schaltuper (Head of Latin America Analysis), Rahul Ghosh (Head of Asia Analysis) and Justin Patrie (Head of Europe Analysis) join forces to nominate their favourite picks and identify the underlying fundamentals driving these currencies.
