A Cloud Of Uncertainty…
Day five of the great European airspace shutdown, and we are all eagerly awaiting the resumption of flights. (Hard to believe that there is so much dust up there, given how sunny southern England has been in recent days – though sadly not today.) Among millions of travellers who have been stranded around the world are several BMI staff members. Meanwhile, airlines are said to be losing US$200mn every day for the duration of the shutdown. While it is far too soon to assess the economic impact, this is the last thing the travel industry needs, just as it recovers from the severe recession of the past year.
Here are some of my thoughts about the implications of the current situation:
- The worst scenario (within reasonable imagination) would be a period of on-again-off-again dust emissions, whereby the all clear is given one week, only to be rescinded a week later, with another all clear issued the following week. This would put travellers and air freight firms in a state of chronic confusion, at least for a few weeks or months.
- Even if the ash cloud clears quickly, but the eruption continues, some would-be passengers may be cautious about immediately booking holidays, lest they end up stranded abroad. Thus, the damage done to the travel industry could easily outlast the dust cloud itself.
- Any extended closure of European airspace would disrupt not only travellers, but a wide range of industries and services that are dependent on moving goods quickly from one place to another. This includes certain high-tech goods, various exotic fruits, other perishable items, and even mundane things like air mail.
- Europe at least has a major advantage in that it has a highly developed road and rail network and extensive river system for transcontinental movement. Thus, if the continent were hit by an extended period of on-again-off-again volcanic clouds, there are alternatives to air travel, although traffic jams would be expected to worsen substantially.
- Air hubs in southern Europe (i.e. south of the cloud zone) could benefit from increased demand for intercontinental flights whose passengers would then complete their return to northern Europe via land routes.
- Political implications appear more limited, but several world leaders (including Barack Obama) were forced to cancel their planned attendance of the funeral of former Polish president Lech Kaczynski on Sunday. Elsewhere, there have been accusations that governments are being overcautious about the shutdown, although this strikes me as being unfair, since if a single plane crashes, the relevant government would be blamed for risking people’s lives.
- As disruptive as the dust cloud is, we should perhaps be grateful that the eruption was not a ‘super volcano’. A few years ago the BBC broadcast a docu-drama called Supervolcano, depicting such an eruption in Yellowstone National Park, USA, that results in a volcanic winter. Scary stuff.