I’ve just come back from visiting Syria. The country is certainly on the tourist map these days judging by the busloads of European visitors. And economically, Syria has strong prospects: BMI is forecasting real GDP growth in the 3.5-5.0% range over the coming five years. Politically, however, I don’t see much prospect of change in the near term. Indeed, one of my abiding memories of the country is of President Bashar al-Assad’s image. It’s everywhere:  on thousands of public posters and murals, in perhaps half of all shops and cafes, and it even adorns the back windscreen of many people’s cars. What is it about authoritarian states that you’re never far from an image of the leader? I suppose there’s an element of control. It reminds the populace that the government is always watching.

But there’s more to it than that. Assad is pictured wearing all sorts of expressions. Sometimes he’s serious, other times he’s jovial. He’s also wistful, pensive, concerned, happy and sombre. In other words, he is shown displaying the full range of human emotions, and this, I think, is key, for most Syrians are unlikely to ever see Assad up close, let alone meet him. In the same way that people in the West often fall into the trap of believing they ‘know’ famous people even though they’ve only read about them or seen them on TV, I wouldn’t be surprised if many (most?) Syrians truly believed that they ‘knew’ Assad. And it is this collective empathy for him that helps to sustain the political system.

Of course, I can’t really know if this theory is true, because it’s impossible to talk about Syrian politics with Syrians, at least not before you get to know someone very well indeed. Maybe this will change. After all, Syria is slowly opening up and coming out of the diplomatic wilderness. The government is keen to encourage foreign investment, and is increasingly looking west. And foreigners are paying attention – BMI’s clients have lately been showing increasing interest in our Syrian country risk coverage. So this begs the question: over time, will increased economic integration with the outside world (and particularly with the West) result in greater political liberalisation at home?

At the moment, the regime does not allow much in the way of political freedom. The media is heavily controlled, often via self-censorship, the government blocks internet sites such as facebook.com and amazon.com (although the internet cafes frequented by foreigners seem to easily get round the blocks, so they can’t be particularly strong), and even though my untrained eye could not spot the secret police, from what I heard from foreigners who had spent longer in the country than I, they aren’t that difficult to recognise once you know what you’re looking for. That said, almost every roof has a satellite dish. And if the guys who run the internet cafes can get past the blocks, then surely Syrians with internet at home and who have modest tech skills should be able to get round the blocks too? So will the greater access to ideas from the outside world via TV and the internet instil in the populace the burning desire for a representative political system?

I have my doubts to be honest. Indeed, despite the abundance of satellite dishes, I am sceptical about how open to external ideas, let alone Western political ideals, most Syrians really are. I base this on my admittedly narrow observation that Syrians don’t seem to read much. I travelled on multiple public minibuses and coaches during my visit, and went all across the country. I only saw one person reading a newspaper, and nobody I saw had a book. This is in sharp contrast to my experience travelling around the UK (and Europe), where books are commonplace. And conversation did not replace reading either – almost everyone travelled in silence. To me, this lack of reading hints at a lack of interest in the outside world, or of gaining knowledge for knowledge’s sake. (Yes, many people in the UK read books that are hardly likely to impart much in the way of knowledge; but many likewise read books that challenge them). I ask the following question: how can political change occur within a society that does not seem to value new ideas and knowledge?

The lack of interest in reading is certainly not limited to Syria, but it is particularly evident in the Arab world. Indeed, the UN estimated in 2002 that more books were translated into Spanish every year than had ever been translated into Arabic. That speaks volumes.

Tags: authoritarianism, democratisation, Middle East, Political Risk, political system, Syria
Posted in: Middle East, Political Risk
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