Brazil: Taking The International Centre Stage
In symbolic terms, the nuclear swap deal with Iran brokered by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva marks a major triumph for Brazil, tying in with what my colleagues at BMI and I have been saying for some time now: Brazil is rapidly becoming a diplomatic force to be reckoned with.
• Charting A Path Of Its Own: Sunday’s agreement is the most significant result so far of Lula’s efforts to catapult Brazil onto the centre stage of global diplomacy, and has allowed the country to assert its ability to engineer tangible results where the attempts of more traditional diplomatic powers have floundered.
• Leading The South’s Rise: The agreement is further indication that Brazil is looking to place itself at the forefront of the ‘Global South’ as developing economies seek to translate their undoubted economic significance into political influence. Whereas Brazil’s previous diplomatic efforts have been focused within Latin America, this deal shows the country is ready to step up as a global political force prepared to play a prominent role in political issues far from its own shores.
• Pushing UN Credentials: In the longer term, Brazil’s involvement in such questions of global significance is likely to bolster its case for recognition in key global institutions. Brazil is currently one of the non-permanent members of the UN Security Council, and a capacity to translate this added diplomatic prominence into tangible results is likely to bode well for future attempts to be elected to other international decision-making bodies.
ISNA
Playing For High Stakes
While the symbolism is overwhelmingly positive, the substance of the deal warrants a little more caution, as our Iran analyst points out today on Business Monitor Online. The deal could delay – at least temporarily – the prospect of further sanctions on Iran, undermining one of the Obama administration’s top international priorities. However, given that the agreement doesn’t meet the West’s key requirement – namely an end to Iran’s enrichment of uranium – the US is likely to continue to push hard for a new round of sanctions, seemingly putting Lula at odds with Washington.
More worrying for Brazil is the potential for Iran to renege on elements of the swap deal. If Iran is subsequently found to have been developing secret nuclear weapons, it could leave Brazil in the uncomfortable position of being perceived to have aligned itself with a country in contravention of international agreements. This would have an even more detrimental effect on Brazil’s relations with the US, in turn potentially damaging its wider international positioning as a leading diplomatic force.