One of my core Latin American views for some time now has been that political risk will be a key determinant of which countries out- and underperform over the medium term. In this respect, the landslide victory for Juan Manuel Santos in the second round of Colombia’s presidential election on Sunday represents a strong positive… [Read more]
The future movements of the Chinese yuan have been one of the most hotly debated issues in the global economy for many years. The initial 2.1% revaluation of July 21, 2005, after a decade at CNY8.28/US$, was almost as eagerly awaited as the release of the first Star Wars prequel, and like the latter, it… [Read more]
This week Mark Schaltuper is joined by Cedric Chehab, Head of Commodities Research at BMI, to discuss the outlook for the commodity complex. With macroeconomic headwinds in the making, how will cyclical commodities perform relative to grains and softs, and what are the risks of gold forming a bubble?
Riskwatchdog recently attended a Bloomberg Africa focus day where several speakers discussed the potential offered by the African consumer in a challenge to the often-held view that the continent is a pure resource play. My colleagues in the Africa team at BMI are equally excited by the prospects for private consumption growth over the coming… [Read more]
I expect soft commodity markets to continue trading in a volatile fashion over the coming weeks driven chiefly by their own specific supply and demand dynamics, rather than wider macro-developments. My key thoughts are as follows: The cocoa market will likely to remain volatile and I do not rule out continued gains in the coming… [Read more]
With South Africa’s World Cup well under way, concerns that infrastructure would not be up to scratch have fallen by the wayside. The investment required to prepare South Africa was substantial, running in the billions of dollars, and far exceeding that of previous host nations. The impact of all this has been a tremendous –… [Read more]
One of the news stories drawing my attention today is a report in the New York Times suggesting that Afghanistan has almost US$1 trillion worth of mineral deposits. The article, citing US geologists, lists iron, copper, cobalt, gold, and lithium as existing in vast quantities in the country’s soil. Lithium in particular has been highlighted,… [Read more]
