Less than a fortnight ago, with eurozone credit concerns reaching fever pitch, we believed it was necessary to remind readers of Japan’s perilous sovereign debt outlook (see Business Monitor Online, ‘Charting The Public Debt Time-Bomb’, November 18, 2011). A quick comparison of gross debt metrics, repayment schedules, and economic growth prospects would suggest that Japan… [Read more]
An Assessment Of Political Risks There is a widespread belief that the eurozone will survive, because “there’s no way that German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Nicolas Sarkozy, and other European leaders will let 60 years of European integration efforts collapse during their watch”. These leaders will take decisive action at the last minute to… [Read more]
Commodity prices have dramatically fallen out of their multi-year uptrends in recent months, as the global macroeconomic environment has deteriorated and risk aversion swept through markets. This week, Edward Coughlan, BMI’s Head of Mining Analysis is joined by John Davies, Head of Commodities Analysis, to discuss the outlook for commodity prices in 2012.
In Business Monitor Online this week, we run two major features on emerging markets – namely Brazilian outperformance against Mexico over the coming decade, and Thailand’s economy after the country’s worst floods in decades. In the first feature, we explain why Brazil’s economic growth will significantly outperform Mexico’s over the next 10 years, despite the… [Read more]
BMI sees strong potential for agricultural machinery sales in emerging markets in the coming years, as relatively strong growth prospects, high commodity prices and available credit drive sales. For the US, the single largest user of agricultural machinery, we see potential for some increase in sales towards the end of 2011, but we do not… [Read more]
The outbreak of large-scale anti-government protests across Egypt in late November underscores the volatility inherent in the country’s now 10-month old democratic transition. In our blogpost of February 14, we cautioned that former president Hosni Muabrak’s resignation represented only the end of the beginning of the transition. We also warned that any foot-dragging by the… [Read more]
BMI’s outlook for the eurozone has deteriorated sharply on the back of the seeming paralysis among European politicians and the European Central Bank (ECB) in stepping up to the plate and delivering a comprehensive monetary and fiscal plan to stabilise the debt markets and the broader economy. Confidence is collapsing in the private sector, and… [Read more]
