As 2011 draws to a close, I thought I’d take the opportunity to share some ‘outrageous’ political predictions for 2012. When crafting these, I tried to avoid coming up with ‘obvious’ risks such as the break-up of the eurozone, an Israeli attack on Iran, or a terror attack in a major city. Please note that… [Read more]

Riskwatchdog is becoming increasingly wary about the outlook for Brazilian credit, and now sees potential for a more rapid unwind of lending operations than I had initially anticipated. Total available credit expanded by a strong 18.2% y-o-y in November, according to recent data published by the central bank, but a deterioration in external conditions in… [Read more]

Two thousand and eleven has already been one of the most politically eventful years in a long time, mainly because of the Arab Spring and the eurozone crisis (crises), which could redefine the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and Europe, respectively, for at least a generation. Yet, it is quite possible that 2012 could… [Read more]

The US dollar appears set for further gains heading into 2012. The euro has broken through key support at US$1.32/EUR, and beyond any short-term relief, we expect the currency’s overarching direction to remain downward amid European recession and ECB monetary easing. This would bode ill for emerging European currencies – the Czech koruna and Polish… [Read more]

BMI has long-warned that expectations of Chinese yuan (CNY) appreciation are not fundamentally sound, and back in October, my colleagues and I anticipated that the yuan would be re-pegged to the US dollar as the Chinese economy slowed. We now increasingly recognise that a devaluation in the CNY/US$ spot rate could happen in 2012, or… [Read more]

Over the coming week, my colleagues and I will be publishing our global and regional economic outlooks for 2012 on Business Monitor Online. The good news is that we have just published our Africa Outlook today. In this article, we identify and discuss five themes for the next 12 months: Weak external demand, due to… [Read more]

One of the big issues being debated among European leaders lately is whether political power – principally over fiscal policy – should be further centralised in order to save the eurozone from collapse. ‘Eurocrats’ seem to favour centralisation, but many national governments, not to mention their electorates, oppose this. They fear, not unreasonably, that a… [Read more]