‘Outrageous’ Political Predictions For 2012
As 2011 draws to a close, I thought I’d take the opportunity to share some ‘outrageous’ political predictions for 2012. When crafting these, I tried to avoid coming up with ‘obvious’ risks such as the break-up of the eurozone, an Israeli attack on Iran, or a terror attack in a major city. Please note that what follows below are not official BMI predictions, but rather something to think about as 2012 begins.
Obama goes to Tehran: Almost everyone (in the risk analysis business) is talking about the prospects of war against Iran in 2012, and certainly the outlook for Western world-Iran relations isn’t particularly good. In light of this, the real surprise would be a major diplomatic breakthrough. What if, somehow, the US and Iran were to reach a ‘Grand Bargain’ over their outstanding disputes, paving the way for President Barack Obama to visit Tehran for handshakes with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad? This would be a truly extraordinary event, greatly reducing tensions in the Persian Gulf and radically transforming regional and potentially global geopolitics.
US third party presidential victory: The US presidential campaign usually begins at least a year before the election, and many pundits believe that it is probably too late for a new candidate to enter the fray. However, even though the weak US economy has hurt Obama’s ratings, the Republicans have failed to find someone with both the credibility and popular appeal to pose a formidable challenge to the incumbent. Against this backdrop, there have been growing calls for a third-party candidate. Recall that Texan billionaire Ross Perot won 19% of the popular vote in 1992, even though he was a late entrant and pulled out of the presidential race during the summer of that year. Perot was able to capitalise on widespread uncertainty at a time when the US was exiting recession and felt outcompeted economically by Japan. It is too difficult to say who would be a third-party candidate in 2012, but the idea merits considerable attention.
China announces democratic transition: The big event to watch in China in 2012 will be the five-yearly Communist Party of China (CPC) congress in the autumn, which will result in the transfer of power to the ‘fifth generation’ of leaders. The congress may also outline some new ideological phrases or mantras for the new era. No surprises there. But what if the CPC does something really surprising, such as outline a timetable for the transition to a fully democratic and competitive political system? Conventional wisdom holds that the CPC will not do this unless faced with ‘Arab Spring’-style unrest. Yet, wiser heads in the party could argue that an elite-led transition would be the best way to head off mass unrest. A democratic China could dramatically change the way the country and economy are run.
Greece-Israel Vs Turkey war in Eastern Mediterranean: Conventional wisdom holds that if Israel gets drawn into a military confrontation in 2012, it would be against Iran, or possibly a more radicalised Egypt. However, Israel’s relationship with Turkey saw noteworthy strains in 2011, and Israel has been quietly boosting military cooperation with Turkey’s arch-rival, Greece. Meanwhile, the Eastern Mediterranean has emerged as a potential flashpoint, due to its gas deposits, the ownership of which is disputed. It’s not inconceivable that Turkey and Israel could come to blows, leading to a limited military confrontation at sea or in the air.
‘Spring’ in the Steppe: The ‘Arab Spring’ of early 2011 put authoritarian leaders around the world on notice that they could be vulnerable to sudden outbursts of people power – four long-time Arab rulers were toppled by the end of the year. Just before Christmas, Kazakhstan saw its worst unrest in the post-Soviet era, when sacked oil workers clashed with police in the west of the country. Kazakhstan has generally been stable since independence, but the political system is completely dominated by President Nursultan Nazarbayev, who has led the country since the late Soviet era. Yet, there has been speculation about his health, and he does not appear to have a clear succession plan. Thus, a key risk is that he could pass away, triggering a destabilising power struggle, whose outcome could lead to mass unrest. And if that were to happen, similar uprisings could take hold in Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan (Kyrgyzstan is already democratic), potentially radically transforming the region.
That’s enough to think about for now. I should mention that we also list more ‘mainstream’ ‘wild card’ risks at the end of our latest Global Political Outlook 2012, which was published in Business Monitor Online on December 16, 2011.
On that note, Business Monitor International wishes all its readers a happy new year, free of a ‘hard landing’.