Obama Still Well Positioned For 2012 Re-Election
In Business Monitor Online today, we publish a detailed preview of the US 2012 presidential and congressional elections. Despite the United States’ economic woes, Barack Obama still looks well positioned to win re-election in 2012. Unsurprisingly, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is most likely to win the Republican nomination for president.
In many ways, the Republican candidate should be a shoo-in for the White House. Unemployment remains elevated by historical standards, Washington’s fiscal deficit remains eye-popping, and crucially, Obama’s approval ratings are hardly robust (at 46% in the daily Gallup poll, versus 48% disapproving of his performance). Furthermore, the rise of the ‘Tea Party’ movement suggests that the Republican Party base could be re-energised to turn out to vote this year, much as Democrats came out in droves in 2008.
However, we think that Obama should still be considered the favourite to win in November 2012. First, and most importantly, White House incumbents have a natural advantage, so long as the economy is improving by the time the election is held, which we expect to be the case this time around. Second, the Electoral College map is relatively favourable for Obama in our view, with Romney having to make up significant ground in several major swing states such as Ohio and Pennsylvania (we will provide a more thorough analysis as November approaches). As usual, it will come down to a short list of vote-rich states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. Given that a majority of these states has traditionally been considered Republican-leaning, and given that Obama has maintained significant support in most, it appears that the Republican candidate will be as much on the defensive as on the offensive. It is very difficult to see a path for a Republican candidate to the presidency without winning North Carolina, for example.
It is certainly unlikely that Obama will win as many electoral votes as he did in 2008 (365 of the 538 available), but it is more likely than not that he will reach the 270 required to win re-election. Of course, this election should be on a knife’s edge, not least because the reallocation of electoral votes as part of the 2010 Census population findings has shifted 14 or more electoral votes to traditionally Republican-leaning states. If Romney can tap into the groundswell of voters who are dissatisfied with the state of the economy, he stands a very reasonable chance of being elected.
In our US 2012 preview article, we also discuss what policies may be expected under a Romney presidency or a re-elected Obama. In a separate article also published on Business Monitor Online today, we also outline Obama’s main foreign policy challenges in 2012.