Scottish Independence Referendum: The Big Questions
Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond’s proposed referendum for the independence of Scotland is an existential issue for the United Kingdom. Business Monitor Online recently published a primer on the subject, discussing the following questions:
- What will be the choices on offer to the Scottish electorate?
- When will the referendum be held?
- Who will vote in the referendum?
- How will the campaign be run?
- What outcome do opinion polls suggest?
- What will be the impact of the referendum on UK politics?
- What would a Yes vote mean for Scotland?
- What would an independent Scotland mean for the UK’s ‘great power’ status?
Overall, with only around 30% of Scots solidly in favour of independence, the referendum will probably fail. Nevertheless, despite the defeat of the Quebec independence referendum in 1980, the separatists regained momentum and came within a whisker of succeeding in the 1995 vote. If the Scottish nationalists lose by a narrow margin, they could eventually try again.
But even if they succeeded, would they really gain ‘independence’? Sovereignty is a hazy concept these days. Several eurozone countries have lost their economic policymaking powers to supranational institutions over the past year. Elsewhere, South Ossetia and Abkhazia seceded from Georgia in 2008, only to become de facto Russian protectorates, which virtually no one recognises. Clearly, Scotland should not be compared to those two statelets, but an independent Scotland would probably join the EU and eurozone (provided the latter still exists!), meaning that considerable political power would be wielded in Brussels and Frankfurt, rather than in Edinburgh.
January 18th, 2012 at 4:48 pm
If Scotland tries to keep Sterling then it will definitely be less independent than some will hope for…HM Treasury will need to impose tough restrictions in order to make that situation work.
January 29th, 2012 at 2:28 pm
As a Scot it’s really sad to see Salmon pull the wool over scots eyes. He’s in it to be a president… Scotland is recognised all over the world as what it has contributed through the UK. Why break one of the most successful unions around and become a a country 6 times smaller than it was before…
January 29th, 2012 at 2:30 pm
I think the whole of the UK would suffer if Scotland left. But most probably Scotland would suffer most off all? UK businesses would have an incentive to move down south for sure.
January 30th, 2012 at 11:17 am
Thanks for your comments. It is great to have your take on it.