The approval of a second bailout for Greece and a second LTRO auction by the European Central Bank have significantly alleviated meltdown risks for the eurozone periphery and the region’s banks. However, more will need to be accomplished over the next 12-18 months to ensure the long-term survival of the currency bloc. Mark Schaltuper, BMI’s… [Read more]
Over the last two years, oil and gas exploration in East Africa has gathered pace as high oil global prices have spurred ‘frontier’ exploration. In particular, a number of large gas discoveries have been made in the Rovuma Basin, off the shore of Mozambique and Tanzania. Licence operators have now proved-up between 1.5trn and 1.9trn… [Read more]
Business Monitor Online has just published its latest Global Asset Class Strategy update. We begin by outlining our macroeconomic views. Our global real GDP growth forecast has been revised down slightly to 2.6% for 2012 from 2.7% previously, but the overall outlook is relatively unchanged. The major macro themes we see playing out include a… [Read more]
Without doubt, one of the reasons why Japan has been in such an economic funk for much of the past 20 years is its lack of strong leadership. Yoshihiko Noda is Japan’s 14th prime minister in the past two decades, and the sixth in five years. No other country has such a frequent turnover of… [Read more]
On February 18th, China cut its Reserve Requirement Ratio by 0.5% to 20.5% in an effort to boost liquidity amid a declining economic growth outlook. In this week’s Business Monitor Podcast, Stuart Allsopp, Head of Asia Country Risk, discusses with Andrew Wood the hard landing scenario that looks to be unfolding in China, as well… [Read more]
We don’t wish to speak too soon, but the technicals suggest that oil prices could be headed back to their 2008 record highs. It was at that time, in June-July 2008, that we said that the risk to the global economy was flipping quickly from inflation to deflation, which of course played out spectacularly. The… [Read more]
Almost everything BMI’s Information Communications Technology (ICT) team writes about this year will come down to a single word: data. Data usage has exploded in the past few years and there are no signs so far of a slowdown. In fact, new networks and new devices entering the market will only serve to boost the… [Read more]
