Recent events reinforce our view that there is more than a 50-50 chance of medium-term default on Argentine restructured sovereign debt. On November 21, Judge Thomas Griesa, acting at the direction of the US Second Circuit Court of Appeals, clarified his earlier ruling regarding Argentina’s practice of paying holders of restructured debt and ignoring investors… [Read more]
Entries for November 2012
Following an underwhelming 2012, Stuart Allsopp and Umang Parikh take a look at prospects for auto sales in the Chinese market in 2013 and beyond. With the economy in store for a transitory growth pickup, is the autos sector set to benefit, and if so, where will the growth be found? Additionally, as China’s economy… [Read more]
Taiwan’s economy rebounded relatively quickly from the global financial crisis, posting an average 7.4% growth rate in 2010 and 2011, which followed a 1.8% contraction in 2009. This would appear to attest to the resilience of the island’s economy. However, Taiwan’s export-oriented economy has struggled to stay afloat this year, forcing the government to revise… [Read more]
The recent conflict between Israel and Hamas risked spiralling out of control until Egypt brokered a ceasefire on November 21. Leo Herzenstein from BMI’s Middle East team discusses whether the truce is likely to hold, as well as what is at stake for the broader region if the conflict reignites.
Without doubt, one of the biggest political risks in the world going into 2013 is the possibility that Israel will attack Iran to halt its nuclear programme. With this in mind, Business Monitor Online has just published a scenario of how an Israeli air strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities would play out. Although this is… [Read more]
BMI is seeing increasing value in Western European equities as an asset class, although selectivity is crucial. The key themes driving our thinking are: Policy and regulatory uncertainty: Questions over the pace and extent of fiscal consolidation combined with debate over the role of the region’s banking sector will continue to blight the outlook for… [Read more]
Cathay Pacific Cargo’s choice of Sri Lanka for its latest air freight expansion highlights not only the company’s continued focus on new markets in Asia, but the potential for Sri Lanka to increase its air freight role. BMI has previously highlighted our positive view of Sri Lanka in the shipping sector, with the country well… [Read more]