Central America Outlook: Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Gain
In the run-up to the release of the hotly anticipated Central America Special Report, we welcome Latin America analyst, Julie Beckenstein, to discuss some of the broader themes facing the region over the coming decade. We ask her why investors have been growing increasingly interested in this often politically turbulent region. An announcement of our Special Report’s availability will follow shortly in our online store.
February 5th, 2013 at 4:15 pm
Have just listened to Latin America analyst, Julie Beckenstein’s forecast on Central America. Really nothing new. It is the usual old story of these countries may become of some importance one day in the future. Presume that Mexico is not involved in her views?
February 8th, 2013 at 7:26 pm
At this point, the Central American economies are far more exposed to the US than Mexico in terms of both remittance inflows and exports. We are quite optimistic on Mexico’s long-term growth outlook (see our May 16, 2012 and November 21, 2012 posts for further information), and believe that a stronger Mexican economy will help to bolster growth in Central America over the long term. However, at this point Mexico’s robust economic expansion is just beginning to take place. As such, this will not be sufficient to drive robust growth in Central America given our expectations for more moderate economic activity in the US and many of the South American economies over the short-to-medium term.
Best regards,
Julie Beckenstein