BMI forecasts medium-term appreciation of the Korean won against the Japanese yen. This implies South Korea’s Hyundai Motor Company and Kia Motors Corp are likely to continue ceding market share to Japanese automakers such as Toyota, as South Korean competitiveness is eroded and Japan enjoys a resurgence on the back of a brightening export outlook…. [Read more]
On a technical basis, copper prices are poised to break higher, which suggests that global economic activity is accelerating. We were bullish towards industrial metals between August 2012 and January 2013 and captured about 9% of the subsequent rally. We have been neutral since the start of this year, as we thought a positive first… [Read more]
Business Monitor International (BMI)’s Commodities team recently updated its five-year price forecasts for gold (and all the other commodities we cover). Essentially, we see gold prices remaining underpinned by loose global monetary policy conditions over the next 12 months. We expect gold prices to peak around 2014, as by that point investors should increasingly start… [Read more]
Sunday, January 27, 2013, marked the 40th anniversary of the signing of the Paris Peace Accords that paved the way for the end of the United States’ formal military involvement in the Vietnam War. The conflict would continue until April 1975, when communist North Vietnam conquered the US-backed South, but by that time Washington had… [Read more]
The Jamaican economy is one of the few in the Caribbean region that could experience a major crisis in the coming year, given its substantial macroeconomic imbalances. The following three points stand out: Debt dynamics: Jamaica’s debt burden, at nearly 130% of GDP, is the largest in the region. With around one third of total… [Read more]
In recent years, there have been indications that the Sahel region of Africa is emerging as a safe haven for Islamist militants. France’s intervention in Mali and the subsequent hostage crisis at the In Amenas gas plant in eastern Algeria last week appear to confirm this trend. There are several reasons why the Sahel is… [Read more]
British Prime Minister David Cameron’s offer of a referendum on UK membership of the EU has set the agenda for the 2015 general election, but more importantly, it has set up a pivotal moment for determining the country’s relationship with Europe. Britain’s commitment to the entire ‘European project’ has long been half-hearted, at least compared… [Read more]