Last week on Business Monitor Online I suggested that commodities looked poised for further gains as the US dollar weakened slightly and equity markets pushed higher. Two charts in particular point to additional upside for commodities. The first is the Baltic Dry Index, which has pushed above resistance in recent trading. Indeed, the Index seems [Read more...]

Precious metals have been hit particularly hard in recent trading and I see potential for further downside in the coming days, as I suggested recently. Weaker equity markets, a rise in risk aversion and a concomitant rise in the US dollar have weighed on commodities. Currently, daily momentum indicators are firmly into oversold territory and [Read more...]

Risk Watchdog has been observing the recent correction in commodity prices with interest. A wave of risk aversion has seen commodities dragged down by weaker equities and a stronger US dollar. Of key concern is the CRB index, which has broken below multi-month support.

The CRB index has suffered several short-term corrections in recent months, only [Read more...]

Risk watchdog had been bullish towards the agricultural complex for some time, but last week’s barrage of data from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has proved a bit of a game changer. Specifically, while still optimistic on the outlook for soft commodities such as coffee, cocoa and sugar, me and my colleagues here at [Read more...]

On this week’s podcast, we interview Business Monitor Chief Economist Tim Cooper, who gives his analysis on the global outlook for 2010. Highlighted themes include relative performance of emerging markets versus developed economies, the inflation outlook, potential for ‘double dips’ in the US and China, asset allocation strategies and the risks to recovery.

 

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Sugar has already been the star performer among agricultural commodities in 2009, but Risk Watchdog believes that the year-long ascent in prices could have further to run. Sugar began the year trading around USc14.00/lb region, but by September, had rallied all the way to USc26.00/lb. Since the summer, prices have edged lower as investors hesitated [Read more...]

After months of mulling over the possibility of a Eurobond sale, Angolan authorities confirmed last month that the issue would go ahead in the early 2010. The amount being sought is reported to be close US$4.0bn – quite a sum for country whose nominal GDP is only about US$100bn. To my mind, the decision to [Read more...]