Recently, there has been considerable speculation that the US can achieve energy independence over the coming years as a result of the development of unconventional domestic oil and gas resources. Some proponents of US energy independence argue that Washington would no longer need to involve itself in the affairs of the Middle East, or to… [Read more]

Over the last two years, oil and gas exploration in East Africa has gathered pace as high oil global prices have spurred ‘frontier’ exploration. In particular, a number of large gas discoveries have been made in the Rovuma Basin, off the shore of Mozambique and Tanzania. Licence operators have now proved-up between 1.5trn and 1.9trn… [Read more]

We don’t wish to speak too soon, but the technicals suggest that oil prices could be headed back to their 2008 record highs. It was at that time, in June-July 2008, that we said that the risk to the global economy was flipping quickly from inflation to deflation, which of course played out spectacularly. The… [Read more]

Front-month Brent Crude was testing key resistance at US$120/bbl on the morning of February 17, buoyed by rumours that Iran was set to cut off oil supplies to Europe, and with a resolution to the Greece crisis inching toward fruition. The key upside level for Brent is US$127.02/bbl, which represents the April 2011 high. A… [Read more]

The Baltic Dry Index – the index measuring dry bulk shipping costs – hit a 25-year low this month. The latest drop in rates was due to the lack of import demand during the Chinese New Year holiday, but the underlying cause of the long-term decline is the oversupply of vessels. We believe there is… [Read more]

Ahead of general elections due in 2014, the Indian federal government has given its approval to a sweeping Food Security Bill (FSB), which guarantees the ‘right to access’ of grains for more than 60% of the country’s 1.2bn population. While there is a chance that the Bill may be challenged at the voting stage –… [Read more]

Regular readers of this website will recall that we coined the acronym BLANKs in 2008 to refer to a group of extreme frontier market economies in Asia which have considerable development potential, but are being constrained by highly unusual or adverse political or geopolitical conditions. These are Burma (Myanmar), Laos, Afghanistan, and North Korea. All… [Read more]