Although a deal on private sector writedowns of Greek debt has yet to be reached, the risk rally that began in October 2011 remains in place. Measures taken by the European Central Bank, such as cutting interest rates and providing unlimited banking sector liquidity, have certainly helped stabilise financial markets in the eurozone and beyond… [Read more]
As many readers will have observed over the past few weeks, Hungary has become the focus of attention in Central & Eastern Europe (CEE), and for all the wrong reasons. The country finds itself caught in a financial storm equivalent in magnitude to that witnessed in late 2008, with the forint trading close to its… [Read more]
Business Monitor International (BMI)’s Politburo Standing Committee sat down yesterday to discuss our thoughts on China in 2012. Below is a brief summary of what we talked about. These notes were prepared for internal circulation, but given the importance of China, and the fact that our regular readers are probably already familiar with our views,… [Read more]
The US dollar appears set for further gains heading into 2012. The euro has broken through key support at US$1.32/EUR, and beyond any short-term relief, we expect the currency’s overarching direction to remain downward amid European recession and ECB monetary easing. This would bode ill for emerging European currencies – the Czech koruna and Polish… [Read more]
BMI has long-warned that expectations of Chinese yuan (CNY) appreciation are not fundamentally sound, and back in October, my colleagues and I anticipated that the yuan would be re-pegged to the US dollar as the Chinese economy slowed. We now increasingly recognise that a devaluation in the CNY/US$ spot rate could happen in 2012, or… [Read more]
Over the coming week, my colleagues and I will be publishing our global and regional economic outlooks for 2012 on Business Monitor Online. The good news is that we have just published our Africa Outlook today. In this article, we identify and discuss five themes for the next 12 months: Weak external demand, due to… [Read more]
Towards the end of 2010 our global team identified nine key global themes for 2011, ranging from an intensification of the eurozone debt crisis to ‘all eyes on China’. With 2011 now coming to a close, Mark Schaltuper, BMI’s Head of Europe Country Risk is joined by Global Economic Strategist Tim Cooper to see how… [Read more]
