Whichever way you cut it, the British pound sterling certainly had a rough 2008. Since the start of last year, the unit has sunk 32% against the euro and came very close to hitting parity with the single currency for the first time ever. Most of this decline occurred after I flagged the prospect in [Read more...]

In line with my view of a renewed bounce in the US dollar (which is playing out really nicely, by the way), I believe that the recent gains of some sub-Saharan African currencies could be rather short-lived. Indeed, over at businessmonitor.com, I have been highlighting the potential for a rally in the Kenyan shilling, which [Read more...]

Last Wednesday, Watchdog pointed out that the move through US$1.3000/EUR would set up euro gains towards US$1.3800/EUR. At US$1.3400/EUR, I wrote on www.businessmonitor.com that US$1.4900/EUR was a realistic possibility, as the dollar would come under renewed pressure due to Fed easing, in both conventional monetary policy and quantitative terms.

In fact the dollar has depreciated against [Read more...]

In case you’re wondering about the sarcasm in the title, I am paraphrasing Emperor Hirohito’s World War II surrender speech, when he said that ‘the war situation had developed not necessarily to Japan’s advantage’. That was, of course, the biggest understatement I can think of, but the yen’s ascent to a fresh 13-year high of [Read more...]

In these uncertain times, RiskWatchdog’s quest for finding relative value in emerging markets currencies has been a challenge to say the least, with only a handful of high-yielders like the Turkish lira and Kenyan shilling showing even a glimmer of upside potential. Nevertheless, one chart that found its way onto my desk this morning was [Read more...]

Despite the daily barrage of ever worsening macroeconomic data emanating from all developed countries, equity markets have failed to breach the October lows, and have in fact shown a large degree of stability in recent weeks. As has become clear for a little while now, the fact that markets are not reacting negatively to the [Read more...]

In case you hadn’t heard, speculation is mounting that the Vietnamese authorities might devalue the dong currency in the near future to boost the country’s exports.

Frankly, I am not that surprised, since Vietnam is one of the few Asian countries that have actually increased their export dependency on the US over the past 20 [Read more...]