Business Monitor Online has just published its latest Global Asset Class Strategy update. We begin by outlining our macroeconomic views. Our global real GDP growth forecast has been revised down slightly to 2.6% for 2012 from 2.7% previously, but the overall outlook is relatively unchanged. The major macro themes we see playing out include a… [Read more]

In Business Monitor Online today, we provide an update of two of our asset class strategies, and our reasoning behind them. Below, we publish short excerpts from each article. Japan: Under almost all scenarios we can envisage, Japanese equities look set to outperform government bonds over the medium term, particularly in risk-adjusted terms, with the… [Read more]

BMI’s prediction of a second devaluation of the Sri Lankan rupee played out on February 14, with the currency ending the day at LKR120.13/US$ – marking a 5.4% drop from when we called such a move in our online service on January 30. At one stage on February 15, the rupee diced with a record… [Read more]

Improved US macroeconomic data, another quarter of solid earnings and de facto quantitative easing by the European Central Bank (ECB) have propelled the Dow Jones Industrial Average to its highest close since 2008 – with the index breaking above the highs of mid-2010 yesterday. Although some caution is warranted given the somewhat overstretched recovery staged… [Read more]

Although a deal on private sector writedowns of Greek debt has yet to be reached, the risk rally that began in October 2011 remains in place. Measures taken by the European Central Bank, such as cutting interest rates and providing unlimited banking sector liquidity, have certainly helped stabilise financial markets in the eurozone and beyond… [Read more]

As many readers will have observed over the past few weeks, Hungary has become the focus of attention in Central & Eastern Europe (CEE), and for all the wrong reasons. The country finds itself caught in a financial storm equivalent in magnitude to that witnessed in late 2008, with the forint trading close to its… [Read more]

Business Monitor International (BMI)’s Politburo Standing Committee sat down yesterday to discuss our thoughts on China in 2012. Below is a brief summary of what we talked about. These notes were prepared for internal circulation, but given the importance of China, and the fact that our regular readers are probably already familiar with our views,… [Read more]