In Business Monitor Online today, we outline key risks in two economies. In the case of Croatia, we retain our view that the government will seek IMF backing of some sort this year, which will help avert a full-blown crisis in the economy. This is predicated on the increasingly difficult conditions for Croatian financial markets… [Read more]
As many readers will have observed over the past few weeks, Hungary has become the focus of attention in Central & Eastern Europe (CEE), and for all the wrong reasons. The country finds itself caught in a financial storm equivalent in magnitude to that witnessed in late 2008, with the forint trading close to its… [Read more]
Business Monitor International (BMI) wishes all its readers a very happy new year. On that note, my colleagues and I recently published ‘Our Key Themes For 2012’, which can be found on Business Monitor Online and in the latest edition of our monthly Global Macro Monitor magazine. In many ways, our 2012 preview is a… [Read more]
As 2011 draws to a close, I thought I’d take the opportunity to share some ‘outrageous’ political predictions for 2012. When crafting these, I tried to avoid coming up with ‘obvious’ risks such as the break-up of the eurozone, an Israeli attack on Iran, or a terror attack in a major city. Please note that… [Read more]
Two thousand and eleven has already been one of the most politically eventful years in a long time, mainly because of the Arab Spring and the eurozone crisis (crises), which could redefine the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and Europe, respectively, for at least a generation. Yet, it is quite possible that 2012 could… [Read more]
The US dollar appears set for further gains heading into 2012. The euro has broken through key support at US$1.32/EUR, and beyond any short-term relief, we expect the currency’s overarching direction to remain downward amid European recession and ECB monetary easing. This would bode ill for emerging European currencies – the Czech koruna and Polish… [Read more]
One of the big issues being debated among European leaders lately is whether political power – principally over fiscal policy – should be further centralised in order to save the eurozone from collapse. ‘Eurocrats’ seem to favour centralisation, but many national governments, not to mention their electorates, oppose this. They fear, not unreasonably, that a… [Read more]