Regular readers of this website will recall that we coined the acronym BLANKs in 2008 to refer to a group of extreme frontier market economies in Asia which have considerable development potential, but are being constrained by highly unusual or adverse political or geopolitical conditions. These are Burma (Myanmar), Laos, Afghanistan, and North Korea. All… [Read more]

Although a deal on private sector writedowns of Greek debt has yet to be reached, the risk rally that began in October 2011 remains in place. Measures taken by the European Central Bank, such as cutting interest rates and providing unlimited banking sector liquidity, have certainly helped stabilise financial markets in the eurozone and beyond… [Read more]

The story of the past week has been the resurgence of the euro and the nascent return of risk appetite. The euro is poised to rally to resistance at US$1.3250/EUR, although we would be cautious at that stage. Interestingly, the euro has rallied as anticipation has grown surrounding ECB (European Central Bank) and multilateral assistance… [Read more]

Monetary data out of China released over the past week have bolstered investor sentiment. Chinese CPI (consumer price index) continued to fall in December 2011, coming in at a 15-month low of 4.1% y-o-y (compared with the 6.5% high registered in June), while producer price inflation was subdued at just 1.7%. Such disinflation raises hope… [Read more]

As 2012 begins, the final verdict on 2011 growth is taking shape. BMI‘s expectation is that the US economy will sustain some of the momentum that it began to pick up late in 2011, whereas the eurozone and Chinese economies will continue to demonstrate weakness. This is borne out by purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data… [Read more]

European policymakers have reached a breakthrough in negotiations over how to stop the eurozone sovereign debt crisis from escalating further, significantly reducing the risk of a ‘disorderly’ default by Greece any time soon. Moreover, announcements of a bigger role for the IMF and ECB in dealing with the crisis, as well as plans to increase… [Read more]

Sub-Saharan African assets have not been spared by the weakness that has hit ‘risky’ assets across the board, and my colleagues and I do not think that there is much to like financial market-wise in SSA right at this moment. That said, we are firm believers in the region’s longer-term prospects and we think that… [Read more]