Japan and Italy have quite a bit in common. Both have histories stretching back 2,700 years. More recently, both are underperforming economies that have accumulated colossal debt burdens which rapidly ageing (and in Japan’s case, already shrinking) populations will struggle to pay off. In addition, both countries have weak political systems characterised by dozens of… [Read more]

The story of the past week has been the resurgence of the euro and the nascent return of risk appetite. The euro is poised to rally to resistance at US$1.3250/EUR, although we would be cautious at that stage. Interestingly, the euro has rallied as anticipation has grown surrounding ECB (European Central Bank) and multilateral assistance… [Read more]

In Business Monitor Online today, we discuss two important weekend events. It was an unlucky Friday the 13th for France, which lost its AAA credit rating from Standard and Poor’s. Among other things, the downgrade is likely to be prompt a reassessment by investors and the electorate of the Franco-German relationship in ongoing eurozone rescue… [Read more]

As 2012 begins, the final verdict on 2011 growth is taking shape. BMI‘s expectation is that the US economy will sustain some of the momentum that it began to pick up late in 2011, whereas the eurozone and Chinese economies will continue to demonstrate weakness. This is borne out by purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data… [Read more]

Business Monitor International (BMI) wishes all its readers a very happy new year. On that note, my colleagues and I recently published ‘Our Key Themes For 2012’, which can be found on Business Monitor Online and in the latest edition of our monthly Global Macro Monitor magazine. In many ways, our 2012 preview is a… [Read more]

Two thousand and eleven has already been one of the most politically eventful years in a long time, mainly because of the Arab Spring and the eurozone crisis (crises), which could redefine the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and Europe, respectively, for at least a generation. Yet, it is quite possible that 2012 could… [Read more]

One of the big issues being debated among European leaders lately is whether political power – principally over fiscal policy – should be further centralised in order to save the eurozone from collapse. ‘Eurocrats’ seem to favour centralisation, but many national governments, not to mention their electorates, oppose this. They fear, not unreasonably, that a… [Read more]