The absence of political resolve to address the eurozone’s structural shortcomings as a single currency bloc has forced the European Central Bank (ECB) to take action and provide ample long-term liquidity to European banks most at risk of haircuts and nominal losses on debt held by peripheral member states. In the absence of a credible… [Read more]
Business Monitor International (BMI) has just published its latest quarterly Global Political Outlook, covering the period April 2012 to March 2013. As with every update, we include a comprehensive table of virtually all known forthcoming elections, our expected outcomes of these events, and our short-term political risk ratings for the relevant country. Regarding the world’s… [Read more]
Business Monitor International (BMI) recently published a special feature on the future of the European Central Bank (ECB) and monetary policy in the eurozone. The highlights are as follows: The ECB has grown from 10% of the eurozone economy to more than 30% today. It is bigger than the US Federal Reserve and the Bank… [Read more]
German Chancellor Angela Merkel will have sighed with relief following the victory of her ruling Christian Democrats in the tiny state of Saarland, situated along Germany’s border with France and Luxembourg. The outcome of Sunday’s election means that the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) will remain in control of this state after its regional premier, Annegret… [Read more]
Purchasing managers indices (PMI) released on March 22 paint a downbeat picture for macroeconomic activity in both the eurozone and China. Eurozone flash manufacturing PMI fell for the first time in four months, coming in at 47.7 for March compared with February’s 49.0 reading (any reading above 50.0 signals expansion in manufacturing). Consensus had been… [Read more]
The approval of a second bailout for Greece and a second LTRO auction by the European Central Bank have significantly alleviated meltdown risks for the eurozone periphery and the region’s banks. However, more will need to be accomplished over the next 12-18 months to ensure the long-term survival of the currency bloc. Mark Schaltuper, BMI’s… [Read more]
In this webinar we assess whether the eurozone will muddle through or end in a meltdown scenario, which could see the single currency bloc fall apart. Our Global Economic Strategists and Head of Europe Country Risk discuss why the ongoing crisis is a domestic balance of payment problem, which needs to be resolved by its… [Read more]
