In line with my view of a renewed bounce in the US dollar (which is playing out really nicely, by the way), I believe that the recent gains of some sub-Saharan African currencies could be rather short-lived. Indeed, over at businessmonitor.com, I have been highlighting the potential for a rally in the Kenyan shilling, which [Read more...]

Last Wednesday, Watchdog pointed out that the move through US$1.3000/EUR would set up euro gains towards US$1.3800/EUR. At US$1.3400/EUR, I wrote on www.businessmonitor.com that US$1.4900/EUR was a realistic possibility, as the dollar would come under renewed pressure due to Fed easing, in both conventional monetary policy and quantitative terms.

In fact the dollar has depreciated against [Read more...]

President Rafael Correa’s game of chicken with Ecuador’s external creditors finally came to an ugly end on Friday, when he announced he would prefer to take on the ‘monster’ bondholders in court rather than pay up. While many Ecuadoreans will no doubt admire their president’s courage for standing up to those responsible for the country’s [Read more...]

A thought. By now, the US Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing strategy is well underway, with the central bank pushing as much cash as possible into the hands of private commercial banks, hoping that they will then take the money and distribute it throughout the economy in the form of loans. Check out excess [Read more...]

Due to popular demand following my blog piece on skyscrapers and recessions last week, I have humbly agreed to take a closer look at one of Latin America’s outstanding success stories in recent years: the Panamanian property market. Back in the liquidity-drenched days of early 2007 (remember them?!), my colleagues at Business Monitor crowned Panama [Read more...]

Sure, Zimbabwe’s inflation has recently been estimated at 89.7 sextillion (that’s a one with 21 zeroes after it) percent, but given plummeting commodities and the global recession, surely inflation is going to turn the corner in the rest of Africa. After all, yours truly recently pointed out that deflation, rather than inflation, may now be [Read more...]

As 2008 comes to a close, the much-hyped BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) economies are looking increasingly troubled. The only question is: which will fare best? (In the 2009-10 timeframe, not by 2050.)

Perhaps ‘best’ is the wrong term. Chances are, for example, that China and India will grow faster than Brazil, but not without experiencing [Read more...]