The ‘low-key’ (almost anti-climatic) celebrations marking the 50th anniversary since the Cuban revolution on January 1 were highly symbolic of the republic’s current economic, social and political state of affairs. Cuba endured three devastating hurricanes in 2008 (Gustav, Ike and Paloma) incurring damages worth an estimated US$10bn, struggled with soaring fuel and food costs earlier [Read more...]

Whichever way you cut it, the British pound sterling certainly had a rough 2008. Since the start of last year, the unit has sunk 32% against the euro and came very close to hitting parity with the single currency for the first time ever. Most of this decline occurred after I flagged the prospect in [Read more...]

One barely noticed (there was no mention even on Reuters) but potentially significant event in Central and Eastern Europe over the Christmas period was the declaration of independence by the Ruthenians from Ukraine. Lest you wonder who the Ruthenians are, they are an eastern Slavic ethnic group, one of a handful of peoples in Europe [Read more...]

Riskwatchdog is taking a break for the Christmas period.

I will be back on Monday 5 January 2009.

I wish all readers a very merry Christmas and a happy new year!

Last Wednesday, Watchdog pointed out that the move through US$1.3000/EUR would set up euro gains towards US$1.3800/EUR. At US$1.3400/EUR, I wrote on www.businessmonitor.com that US$1.4900/EUR was a realistic possibility, as the dollar would come under renewed pressure due to Fed easing, in both conventional monetary policy and quantitative terms.

In fact the dollar has depreciated against [Read more...]

In case you’re wondering about the sarcasm in the title, I am paraphrasing Emperor Hirohito’s World War II surrender speech, when he said that ‘the war situation had developed not necessarily to Japan’s advantage’. That was, of course, the biggest understatement I can think of, but the yen’s ascent to a fresh 13-year high of [Read more...]

By now most investors will be familiar with the explosive growth of telecommunications – especially mobile phones – in emerging markets. Yet one notable black hole in the telecoms universe (and other industries for that matter) has been North Korea. However, this week Egypt’s Orascom Telecom launched mobile phone services in the last truly ‘old [Read more...]