Monetary data out of China released over the past week have bolstered investor sentiment. Chinese CPI (consumer price index) continued to fall in December 2011, coming in at a 15-month low of 4.1% y-o-y (compared with the 6.5% high registered in June), while producer price inflation was subdued at just 1.7%. Such disinflation raises hope… [Read more]
Late and insufficient rains in parts of Southern Africa at the end of 2011 have raised concerns that the region could face a period of drought, lean harvests and food shortages after several years of bumper crops. Although we do not believe that a crisis is imminent, we assess the risks posed by poor rains… [Read more]
Over the coming week, my colleagues and I will be publishing our global and regional economic outlooks for 2012 on Business Monitor Online. The good news is that we have just published our Africa Outlook today. In this article, we identify and discuss five themes for the next 12 months: Weak external demand, due to… [Read more]
One thing we can be certain about is that the recent trend towards easier monetary policy in both developed and emerging markets has much further to run in 2012. On Thursday, December 8, the European Central Bank cut rates by 25bps for the second time in as many months, and we expect that continued macroeconomic… [Read more]
China’s economic growth story has rapidly turned from one underpinned by productivity gains to one engineered by inflationary policies, and the quality of growth has suffered considerably as a result. Several years of poor capital allocation will have to be unwound eventually, and with the global economy stuttering in the second half of 2011, Rahul… [Read more]
Sharp exchange rate depreciation and rising inflationary pressures have been exacerbated by an unpredictable and often contradictory monetary policy by the Central Bank of Kenya. Can recent – admittedly half-hearted – measures to tighten policy prevent further shilling depreciation and reverse the inflationary trend? This week Mark Schaltuper speaks to Sub-Saharan Africa analyst, Matt Searle,… [Read more]
Brazil’s economy benefits from an almost perfect commodity mix, a rapidly rising consumer base and a government committed to improving the country’s investment climate, suggesting that it will continue to grow at a robust pace over the coming years. However, a reluctance by monetary policymakers to tighten credit conditions, for fear of hurting growth and… [Read more]
