The ‘low-key’ (almost anti-climatic) celebrations marking the 50th anniversary since the Cuban revolution on January 1 were highly symbolic of the republic’s current economic, social and political state of affairs. Cuba endured three devastating hurricanes in 2008 (Gustav, Ike and Paloma) incurring damages worth an estimated US$10bn, struggled with soaring fuel and food costs earlier [Read more...]

President Rafael Correa’s game of chicken with Ecuador’s external creditors finally came to an ugly end on Friday, when he announced he would prefer to take on the ‘monster’ bondholders in court rather than pay up. While many Ecuadoreans will no doubt admire their president’s courage for standing up to those responsible for the country’s [Read more...]

In these uncertain times, RiskWatchdog’s quest for finding relative value in emerging markets currencies has been a challenge to say the least, with only a handful of high-yielders like the Turkish lira and Kenyan shilling showing even a glimmer of upside potential. Nevertheless, one chart that found its way onto my desk this morning was [Read more...]

Due to popular demand following my blog piece on skyscrapers and recessions last week, I have humbly agreed to take a closer look at one of Latin America’s outstanding success stories in recent years: the Panamanian property market. Back in the liquidity-drenched days of early 2007 (remember them?!), my colleagues at Business Monitor crowned Panama [Read more...]

As 2008 comes to a close, the much-hyped BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) economies are looking increasingly troubled. The only question is: which will fare best? (In the 2009-10 timeframe, not by 2050.)

Perhaps ‘best’ is the wrong term. Chances are, for example, that China and India will grow faster than Brazil, but not without experiencing [Read more...]

For all of those out there who have recognised that high inflation is so 2008, and with the risk of deflationary pressures mounting believe that no credible central bank – even in emerging markets – will consider raising interest rates, there may be an early Christmas treat. By that I don’t mean appealing high street [Read more...]

One useful indicator of when countries will slip into recession or economic downturn is the completion dates of major skyscrapers. I’ve checked lists of major tall buildings, and almost all countries were entering a bleak period economically when prominent towers were completed or nearing completion. (The Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat provides a [Read more...]