Earlier today, I attended a panel discussion on the political crisis in Syria at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. Although the event had been planned in advance, today’s meeting took place with Russia’s and China’s weekend veto of a UN Security Council resolution on Syria fresh in everyone’s minds. Below, I summarise the main… [Read more]

As the first anniversary of the start of the Arab Spring passes by, attention is naturally focused on the political transitions in Egypt, Libya, and Yemen, and the quasi-civil war in Syria. Iraq hasn’t attracted too much attention of late, and even the United States’ withdrawal of its troops in December 2011 was a low-key… [Read more]

In our December oil price outlook, we highlighted two factors that dominated the oil market during the course of 2011. Firstly, repeated production outages in the North Sea, West Africa and elsewhere, coupled with the Libyan civil war, resulted in serious supply tightness. Secondly, demand remained resilient despite a deteriorating macro-economic environment. We expect these… [Read more]

One of the biggest risks to the global economy at present is the possibility that Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz, in line with its recent threats. Around 20% of the world’s oil trade and 28% of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports pass through the waterway, and any disruption to this would cause oil… [Read more]

As 2011 draws to a close, I thought I’d take the opportunity to share some ‘outrageous’ political predictions for 2012. When crafting these, I tried to avoid coming up with ‘obvious’ risks such as the break-up of the eurozone, an Israeli attack on Iran, or a terror attack in a major city. Please note that… [Read more]

Two thousand and eleven has already been one of the most politically eventful years in a long time, mainly because of the Arab Spring and the eurozone crisis (crises), which could redefine the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and Europe, respectively, for at least a generation. Yet, it is quite possible that 2012 could… [Read more]

Business Monitor International (BMI) has just published a comprehensive assessment of global shale oil and oil shale developments, and their implications. The main themes and conclusions are as follows: Shale oil has much stronger prospects than oil shale, as the technology and economics of production are far more favourable for the former. Shale oil is… [Read more]